SEC

SEC Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-10-20

SECConference Standings

T1Texas A&MTA&M4-06-121.0%
T1LSULSU3-06-155.1%
3GeorgiaUGA4-16-144.8%
4TennesseeTENN3-16-115.9%
T5TexasTEX2-16-153.3%
T5MissouriMIZ2-16-11.2%
T5VanderbiltVAN2-15-2<0.1%
T8AlabamaALA2-25-28.3%
T8ArkansasARK2-24-3<0.1%
T8FloridaFLA2-24-3<0.1%
11South CarolinaSC2-34-3-
12MississippiMISS1-25-20.4%
13OklahomaOU1-34-3-
14KentuckyUK1-43-4-
T15AuburnAUB0-42-5-
T15Mississippi StMSST0-41-6-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely SEC CCG Matchups

120.3%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
LSULSU
219.9%
LSULSU
vs
TEXTexas
316.8%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
TEXTexas
47.1%
LSULSU
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
57.0%
TennesseeTENN
vs
TEXTexas
65.8%
LSULSU
vs
TENNTennessee
75.5%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
85.5%
TexasTEX
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
93.6%
AlabamaALA
vs
TEXTexas
101.7%
TennesseeTENN
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
111.6%
AlabamaALA
vs
LSULSU
121.5%
AlabamaALA
vs
UGAGeorgia
130.8%
AlabamaALA
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
140.8%
AlabamaALA
vs
TENNTennessee
150.5%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
TENNTennessee

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

SECCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on SEC CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 55.1%
Game
LSUCCG OddsAway
LSUCCG OddsHome
OklahomaOU@MississippiMISS
54.6%
(-0.5%)		55.2%
(+0.1%)
MissouriMIZ@AlabamaALA
54.6%
(-0.4%)		55.1%
(+0.1%)
LSULSU@Texas A&MTA&M
73.5%
(+18.4%)		27.2%
(-27.9%)
ArkansasARK@Mississippi StMSST
56.9%
(+1.9%)		52.8%
(-2.2%)
AuburnAUB@KentuckyUK
54.6%
(-0.4%)		55.4%
(+0.3%)
TexasTEX@VanderbiltVAN
54.8%
(-0.3%)		66.0%
(+11.0%)

Best Winner Combination for LSU

OklahomaOklahomaMissouriMissouriLSULSUMississippi StMississippi StateVanderbiltVanderbilt

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for LSU

LSULSU

CCG: 73.5% • Scenario: 60.2%

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

SECCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team8-07-16-25-3Overall
LSULSU100%89.1%11.1%<0.1%55.1%
TexasTEX-74.4%3.2%-53.3%
GeorgiaUGA-94.6%11.1%-44.8%
Texas A&MTA&M100%84.2%8.5%-21.0%
TennesseeTENN-61.5%1.7%-15.9%
AlabamaALA--22.6%-8.3%
MissouriMIZ-39.3%0.8%-1.2%
MississippiMISS--1.9%-0.4%
ArkansasARK--33.3%-<0.1%
FloridaFLA--82.3%0.1%<0.1%
VanderbiltVAN-100%53.3%0.2%<0.1%
AuburnAUB-----
KentuckyUK-----
Mississippi StMSST-----
OklahomaOU-----
South CarolinaSC-----

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

SECFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team8-07-16-25-34-43-52-61-70-8Avg Wins
TexasTEX(2-1)-70.5%26.2%3.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%--6.7
LSULSU(3-0)16.1%39.7%32.4%10.4%1.3%<0.1%---6.6
GeorgiaUGA(4-1)-42.2%44.2%12.8%0.8%----6.3
TennesseeTENN(3-1)-24.1%65.1%10.2%0.5%<0.1%---6.1
Texas A&MTA&M(4-0)2.4%18.1%40.0%32.2%7.4%----5.8
AlabamaALA(2-2)--36.8%45.7%15.5%1.9%<0.1%--5.2
MissouriMIZ(2-1)-2.6%21.7%42.2%26.7%6.3%0.5%--4.9
MississippiMISS(1-2)--19.6%48.1%26.2%5.6%0.4%<0.1%-4.8
South CarolinaSC(2-3)---26.7%46.8%23.6%2.9%--4.0
ArkansasARK(2-2)--<0.1%1.3%14.9%50.7%33.1%--2.8
FloridaFLA(2-2)--<0.1%0.7%9.1%38.1%52.0%--2.6
VanderbiltVAN(2-1)-0.0%<0.1%0.5%7.0%35.0%57.6%--2.5
OklahomaOU(1-3)---0.2%3.5%19.0%43.1%34.2%-1.9
KentuckyUK(1-4)----0.1%5.9%57.0%37.0%-1.7
AuburnAUB(0-4)----0.5%10.4%38.5%41.5%9.2%1.5
Mississippi StMSST(0-4)----<0.1%0.6%10.4%46.9%42.0%0.7

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com