Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
55.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/01 | L20-27 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W44-21 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W36-33 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W34-17 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W42-10 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W29-26 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W34-10 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:60% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:44% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:77% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:96% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:82% |
Data from 2024-10-20
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 16.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 39.7% | 89.1% |
| 6-2 | 32.4% | 11.1% |
| 5-3 | 10.4% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 1.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 54.6% (-0.5%) | 55.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 54.6% (-0.4%) | 55.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 73.5% (+18.4%) | 27.2% (-27.9%) | |
| 56.9% (+1.9%) | 52.8% (-2.2%) | |
| 54.6% (-0.4%) | 55.4% (+0.3%) | |
| 54.8% (-0.3%) | 66.0% (+11.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Oklahoma
MissouriLSU
Mississippi State
VanderbiltCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LSUCCG: 73.5% • Scenario: 60.2%
Data from 2024-10-20
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
16.1%Any 1 loss
89.1%
39.7%
99.4%
20.2%85.0%
3.6%
84.7%
10.4%82.4%
0.7%
59.2%
4.8%Any 2 losses
11.1%
32.4%35.2%
0.1%20.8%
0.4%19.2%
2.3%16.8%
0.8%15.1%
4.7%10.6%
6.1%9.8%
13.5%7.7%
0.2%6.6%
1.1%3.4%
3.2%Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20