Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
15.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W69-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W51-10 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W71-0 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W25-15 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L14-19 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W23-17 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W24-17 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:93% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:97% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:28% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:95% |
Data from 2024-10-20
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 24.1% | 61.5% |
| 6-2 | 65.1% | 1.7% |
| 5-3 | 10.2% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 16.7% (+0.8%) | 15.7% (-0.2%) | |
| 14.0% (-2.0%) | 16.2% (+0.3%) | |
| 16.9% (+1.0%) | 14.4% (-1.5%) | |
| 15.4% (-0.5%) | 16.5% (+0.5%) | |
| 15.7% (-0.2%) | 16.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 15.7% (-0.3%) | 26.7% (+10.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Oklahoma
Missouri
LSU
Arkansas
Kentucky
VanderbiltCCG: 42.9% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
AlabamaLSUCCG: 17.2% • Scenario: 51.8%
Data from 2024-10-20
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
61.5%
23.9%Any 1 loss
1.9%
64.7%
63.7%
0.2%
7.3%
0.7%6.6%
1.8%5.5%
1.4%
1.4%
60.6%Any 2 losses
2.0%
0.7%12.5%
<0.1%1.9%
0.7%Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20