Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
44.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W34-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W48-3 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W13-12 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L34-41 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W31-13 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W41-31 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W30-15 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:92% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:64% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:72% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:96% |
Data from 2024-10-20
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 42.2% | 94.6% |
| 6-2 | 44.2% | 11.1% |
| 5-3 | 12.8% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 0.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 43.0% (-1.8%) | 45.2% (+0.4%) | |
| 43.9% (-0.9%) | 44.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 45.1% (+0.3%) | 44.4% (-0.4%) | |
| 43.5% (-1.3%) | 46.4% (+1.6%) | |
| 44.4% (-0.4%) | 45.1% (+0.3%) | |
| 44.6% (-0.2%) | 53.3% (+8.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 71.4% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 46.9% • Scenario: 37.6%
Data from 2024-10-20
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
94.6%
39.9%Any 1 loss
15.3%
44.0%95.3%
0.4%95.0%
1.8%16.6%
22.8%9.2%
3.3%3.6%
15.7%Any 2 losses
12.0%
2.4%100.0%
<0.1%21.4%
0.2%16.9%
1.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.6%
0.1%6.3%
0.2%2.2%
0.7%10.0%
<0.1%Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20