Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W76-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W52-3 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W40-6 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W52-13 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L17-20 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W27-3 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | L26-29 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:82% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:89% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:36% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:78% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:96% |
Data from 2024-10-20
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 19.6% | 1.9% |
| 5-3 | 48.1% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 26.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 5.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.0% (-0.4%) | 0.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.7% (+0.3%) | 0.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.1%) | 0.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.0%) | 1.1% (+0.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 5.7% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 0.5% • Scenario: 48.4%
Data from 2024-10-20
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
1.9%
19.6%Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20