Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:41% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:86% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:63% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:98% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:23% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:32% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:21% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:24% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:28% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:59% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:46% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.3% | 93.0% |
| 6-2 | 2.3% | 44.0% |
| 5-3 | 9.1% | 0.8% |
| 4-4 | 21.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 30.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 24.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 10.5% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 1.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
95.7%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
93.8%
<0.1%
92.9%
<0.1%
88.2%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
51.6%
0.9%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%83.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.2%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%51.3%
<0.1%51.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.6%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.0%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.9%
<0.1%34.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
23.8%
2.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.3%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%45.2%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.7%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.3%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.6%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.5%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.8%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.9%
0.1%21.7%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%1.9%
0.2%1.7%
<0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%Any 4 losses
6.9%
2.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.2%
0.2%0.8%
0.2%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2025-08-22