Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:32% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:16% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:86% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:68% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:14% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:26% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:38% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:8% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:42% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:56% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:11% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| 6-2 | 0.3% | 21.0% |
| 5-3 | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| 4-4 | 9.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 23.9% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 33.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 24.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 6.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Any 1 loss
<0.1%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
32.9%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
50.0%
<0.1%
50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
17.5%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
10.3%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%Data from 2025-08-22