Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L24-38 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W48-45 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W42-7 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L24-27 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W45-27 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W35-34 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | L36-42 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | L20-41 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:54% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:33% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:59% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:73% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-3 | 7.7% | 1.0% |
| 5-4 | 30.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 38.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 19.8% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 3.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.1%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.1%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.1%) | 0.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.1%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.1%) | 0.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Colorado
Oklahoma State
Kansas State
West Virginia
UtahBaylor
Arizona StateCCG: 3.1% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Kansas StateBaylorCCG: 0.3% • Scenario: 21.3%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
1.0%
7.7%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26