Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
15.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/01 | W48-14 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W42-21 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W35-24 | |
| 5 | 9/26 | L24-27 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W35-21 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L28-41 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W42-36 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W23-17 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:71% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:45% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:74% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:74% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 17.4% | 80.4% |
| 6-3 | 41.1% | 3.9% |
| 5-4 | 30.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 9.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 1.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 15.4% (-0.2%) | 15.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 16.4% (+0.7%) | 15.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 13.9% (-1.7%) | 18.3% (+2.6%) | |
| 15.7% (+0.1%) | 15.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 15.3% (-0.4%) | 15.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 15.4% (-0.3%) | 15.8% (+0.2%) | |
| 14.7% (-0.9%) | 16.4% (+0.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Arizona
Oklahoma State
West Virginia
Cincinnati
UCF
Arizona StateCCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Kansas StateCCG: 18.3% • Scenario: 39.2%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
80.4%
17.4%Any 1 loss
3.9%
41.1%
7.7%
7.4%
6.5%
6.1%
2.4%
21.4%2.1%
6.2%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26