Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W35-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W24-13 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W42-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W24-17 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W44-0 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L6-23 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W26-7 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | L26-34 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:39% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:18% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:56% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:62% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 2.5% | 7.2% |
| 5-3 | 18.7% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 39.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 31.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 8.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.3%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.3%) | 0.0% (-0.2%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.4%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.1%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
FloridaOklahoma
Kentucky
South Carolina
Mississippi State
TexasCCG: 8.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OklahomaCCG: 0.4% • Scenario: 39.4%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
7.2%
2.5%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26