Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
54.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W69-0 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W27-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W34-13 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W24-21 | |
| 6 | 10/03 | W38-24 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W33-27 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W24-21 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W41-27 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:26% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:55% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:57% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:69% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 5.4% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 27.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-2 | 39.8% | 53.9% |
| 6-3 | 23.1% | 3.1% |
| 5-4 | 4.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 55.1% (+0.3%) | 54.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 57.3% (+2.5%) | 54.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 54.7% (-0.1%) | 55.0% (+0.2%) | |
| 55.9% (+1.1%) | 54.6% (-0.3%) | |
| 51.5% (-3.3%) | 55.7% (+0.9%) | |
| 55.7% (+0.9%) | 54.1% (-0.7%) | |
| 52.2% (-2.6%) | 56.9% (+2.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Arizona
Oklahoma State
Kansas State
West Virginia
Cincinnati
BaylorCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Utah
Iowa StateCCG: 57.9% • Scenario: 43.8%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
5.4%Any 1 loss
100.0%
27.2%Any 2 losses
53.9%
39.8%
81.6%
2.1%
72.7%
7.2%71.9%
1.9%66.3%
3.3%50.0%
13.3%35.9%
12.0%Any 3 losses
3.1%
23.1%5.5%
1.6%5.2%
5.9%3.5%
5.5%1.2%
10.0%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26