Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
3.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W27-0 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W35-9 | |
| 3 | 9/12 | W36-20 | |
| 5 | 9/26 | W27-24 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L11-35 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W39-17 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W31-28 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W24-16 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:81% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:25% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:26% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:27% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 1.4% | 87.3% |
| 7-2 | 12.3% | 21.7% |
| 6-3 | 37.3% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 41.0% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 8.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 3.9% (+0.0%) | 3.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.0% (+0.1%) | 3.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 3.5% (-0.4%) | 4.6% (+0.6%) | |
| 0.6% (-3.4%) | 4.7% (+0.8%) | |
| 3.7% (-0.2%) | 4.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 4.0% (+0.1%) | 3.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 3.8% (-0.1%) | 4.0% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Arizona
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
West Virginia
Cincinnati
UCF
Iowa StateCCG: 16.7% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
HoustonCCG: 4.7% • Scenario: 80.9%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
87.3%
1.4%Any 1 loss
21.7%
12.3%35.1%
0.3%
29.5%
3.7%25.4%
4.3%
9.7%
4.0%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26