Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
14.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W43-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W63-9 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W31-6 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L10-34 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W48-14 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W42-10 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | L21-24 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W53-7 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:79% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:67% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:68% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:63% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 22.9% | 54.6% |
| 6-3 | 41.3% | 5.7% |
| 5-4 | 27.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 7.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 14.6% (-0.3%) | 14.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 11.9% (-2.9%) | 14.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 11.4% (-3.4%) | 20.1% (+5.3%) | |
| 15.4% (+0.6%) | 14.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.5% (-14.3%) | 18.6% (+3.8%) | |
| 14.0% (-0.8%) | 15.5% (+0.7%) | |
| 15.9% (+1.1%) | 13.9% (-0.9%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Arizona
Oklahoma State
Kansas State
West Virginia
Baylor
Arizona StateCCG: 42.9% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Kansas StateUtahCCG: 25.0% • Scenario: 31.1%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
54.6%
22.9%Any 1 loss
5.7%
41.3%
7.8%
13.3%7.1%
11.1%3.8%
10.8%
1.7%
6.0%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26