Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
30.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | L17-20 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W34-20 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W70-0 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W37-34 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W38-30 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W20-11 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W49-17 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W41-20 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:21% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:73% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:43% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:26% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 1.7% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 14.3% | 97.7% |
| 7-2 | 38.4% | 37.3% |
| 6-3 | 36.6% | 0.4% |
| 5-4 | 8.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 30.8% (+0.5%) | 30.1% (-0.2%) | |
| 30.0% (-0.3%) | 30.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 29.3% (-1.0%) | 31.8% (+1.5%) | |
| 31.3% (+1.1%) | 30.0% (-0.3%) | |
| 57.9% (+27.7%) | 22.9% (-7.3%) | |
| 30.4% (+0.1%) | 30.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 27.5% (-2.8%) | 32.5% (+2.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Arizona
Oklahoma State
West VirginiaCincinnati
Baylor
Arizona StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
CincinnatiCCG: 57.9% • Scenario: 20.8%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.7%Any 1 loss
97.7%
14.3%
100.0%
6.6%
99.3%
4.9%99.3%
0.6%
86.8%
2.3%Any 2 losses
37.3%
38.4%66.5%
1.7%56.1%
2.4%44.5%
18.4%36.0%
0.8%22.4%
6.5%22.3%
8.6%Any 3 losses
0.9%
12.1%1.0%
6.7%0.8%
2.3%0.6%
3.1%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26