Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W17-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W68-7 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W34-9 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L20-34 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L20-27 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L11-20 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W45-13 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:46% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:75% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:18% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:97% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:31% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-3 | 1.8% | 2.4% |
| 5-4 | 15.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 39.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 34.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 8.5% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.1%) | 0.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Colorado
Oklahoma State
Kansas State
Houston
CincinnatiUCF
Iowa StateCCG: 2.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UCFCCG: 0.1% • Scenario: 45.5%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
2.4%
1.8%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26