Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
91.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L17-31 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W73-0 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W38-14 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W24-21 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W30-14 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W27-24 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W37-20 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W29-22 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:84% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:82% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:81% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 56.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 35.8% | 93.7% |
| 6-2 | 7.5% | 18.0% |
| 5-3 | 0.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 91.0% (-0.1%) | 91.7% (+0.7%) | |
| 91.2% (+0.1%) | 90.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 90.3% (-0.7%) | 91.2% (+0.2%) | |
| 92.5% (+1.5%) | 90.9% (-0.2%) | |
| 90.9% (-0.1%) | 91.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 90.8% (-0.2%) | 91.1% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Florida
South Carolina
Mississippi State
VanderbiltCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Auburn
Arkansas
TexasCCG: 91.4% • Scenario: 45.3%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
50.5%Any 1 loss
94.6%
37.8%
100.0%
5.6%
99.5%
11.1%92.7%
11.6%
88.0%
9.5%Any 2 losses
44.5%
10.4%99.4%
1.3%93.6%
1.4%87.3%
1.1%18.7%
2.1%18.7%
2.1%16.3%
2.5%Any 3 losses
19.4%
0.7%24.3%
0.2%17.7%
0.3%17.1%
0.2%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26