Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W55-0 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L16-18 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L10-20 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L7-26 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W29-21 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L17-34 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W23-21 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:9% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:57% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:10% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:35% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:70% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 0.2% | 23.7% |
| 5-3 | 4.0% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 25.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 47.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 22.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0% (-0.1%) | 0.5% (+0.5%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Florida
Oklahoma
Kentucky
South Carolina
Arkansas
VanderbiltCCG: 6.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
FloridaCCG: 0.5% • Scenario: 9.3%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
23.7%
0.1%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26