Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W45-26 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W72-17 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L41-44 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W56-24 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W41-34 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W34-31 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | L20-37 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W56-34 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:61% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:97% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:65% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:64% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 25.3% | 1.0% |
| 5-3 | 44.4% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 25.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 4.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (-0.1%) | 1.6% (+1.3%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.3%) | 0.4% (+0.2%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.7%) | 0.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.1%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
FloridaTennessee
Kentucky
South Carolina
Arkansas
VanderbiltCCG: 12.5% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
FloridaTennesseeCCG: 2.6% • Scenario: 5.6%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
1.0%
24.6%
1.3%
0.7%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26