SEC

SEC Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-10-26

SECConference Standings

T1AlabamaALA5-07-191.0%
T1Texas A&MTA&M5-08-023.6%
T3GeorgiaUGA4-16-156.4%
T3MississippiMISS4-17-113.4%
T5TexasTEX3-16-212.7%
T5VanderbiltVAN3-17-12.3%
7TennesseeTENN3-26-20.3%
T8OklahomaOU2-26-20.2%
T8MissouriMIZ2-26-2<0.1%
T8FloridaFLA2-23-4<0.1%
11LSULSU2-35-3-
12AuburnAUB1-44-4-
13South CarolinaSC1-53-5-
T14ArkansasARK0-42-6-
T14KentuckyUK0-52-5-
T14Mississippi StMSST0-44-4-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-10-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely SEC CCG Matchups

150.5%
AlabamaALA
vs
UGAGeorgia
218.4%
AlabamaALA
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
311.7%
AlabamaALA
vs
TEXTexas
48.2%
AlabamaALA
vs
MISSMississippi
53.0%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
62.6%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
MISSMississippi
71.8%
MississippiMISS
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
81.8%
AlabamaALA
vs
VANVanderbilt
90.7%
MississippiMISS
vs
TEXTexas
100.3%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
VANVanderbilt
110.2%
AlabamaALA
vs
TENNTennessee
120.2%
TexasTEX
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
130.1%
MississippiMISS
vs
VANVanderbilt
140.1%
Texas A&MTA&M
vs
VANVanderbilt
15<0.1%
AlabamaALA
vs
MIZMissouri

Data from 2025-10-26 • SportsSimulate.com

SECCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10

Data from 2025-10-26 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on SEC CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 91.0%
Game
AlabamaCCG OddsAway
AlabamaCCG OddsHome
GeorgiaUGA@FloridaFLA
91.0%
(-0.1%)		91.7%
(+0.7%)
OklahomaOU@TennesseeTENN
91.2%
(+0.1%)		90.9%
(-0.1%)
KentuckyUK@AuburnAUB
90.3%
(-0.7%)		91.2%
(+0.2%)
South CarolinaSC@MississippiMISS
92.5%
(+1.5%)		90.9%
(-0.2%)
Mississippi StMSST@ArkansasARK
90.9%
(-0.1%)		91.1%
(+0.1%)
VanderbiltVAN@TexasTEX
90.8%
(-0.2%)		91.1%
(+0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for Alabama

FloridaFloridaSouth CarolinaSouth CarolinaMississippi StMississippi StateVanderbiltVanderbilt

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Alabama

AuburnAuburnArkansasArkansasTexasTexas

CCG: 91.4% • Scenario: 45.3%

Data from 2025-10-26 • SportsSimulate.com

SECCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team8-07-16-2Overall
AlabamaALA100%93.7%18.0%91.0%
GeorgiaUGA-92.0%3.8%56.4%
Texas A&MTA&M100%37.9%1.1%23.6%
MississippiMISS-18.0%0.1%13.4%
TexasTEX-75.5%0.3%12.7%
VanderbiltVAN-51.0%1.4%2.3%
TennesseeTENN--1.0%0.3%
OklahomaOU--7.2%0.2%
MissouriMIZ--0.5%<0.1%
FloridaFLA--23.7%<0.1%
ArkansasARK----
AuburnAUB----
KentuckyUK----
LSULSU----
Mississippi StMSST----
South CarolinaSC----

Data from 2025-10-26 • SportsSimulate.com

SECFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team8-07-16-25-34-43-52-61-70-8Avg Wins
AlabamaALA(5-0)56.1%35.8%7.5%0.6%-----7.5
MississippiMISS(4-1)-74.3%23.1%2.5%<0.1%----6.7
GeorgiaUGA(4-1)-59.8%35.4%4.6%0.2%----6.5
Texas A&MTA&M(5-0)8.3%38.9%43.6%9.2%-----6.5
TexasTEX(3-1)-16.7%49.4%28.1%5.6%0.3%---5.8
VanderbiltVAN(3-1)-3.9%25.9%45.2%22.1%2.9%---5.1
TennesseeTENN(3-2)--25.3%44.4%25.5%4.9%---4.9
MissouriMIZ(2-2)--14.3%38.9%34.6%11.2%1.0%--4.5
OklahomaOU(2-2)--2.5%18.7%39.2%31.1%8.4%--3.8
LSULSU(2-3)---4.5%33.0%49.5%13.0%--3.3
FloridaFLA(2-2)--0.2%4.0%25.7%47.3%22.8%--3.1
AuburnAUB(1-4)----4.7%31.2%51.3%12.8%-2.3
ArkansasARK(0-4)----0.6%8.9%34.4%44.3%11.9%1.4
South CarolinaSC(1-5)-----2.1%27.0%71.0%-1.3
KentuckyUK(0-5)-----1.7%16.2%45.8%36.3%0.8
Mississippi StMSST(0-4)----<0.1%0.6%7.2%36.3%55.9%0.5

Data from 2025-10-26 • SportsSimulate.com