American Athletic Conference

American Athletic Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-02

American Athletic ConferenceConference Standings

T1TulaneTULN0-01-046.5%
T1MemphisMEM0-01-042.7%
T1ArmyARMY0-00-132.8%
T1South FloridaUSF0-01-025.4%
T1NavyNAVY0-01-024.8%
T1UT San AntonioUTSA0-00-115.4%
T1North TexasUNT0-01-04.8%
T1East CarolinaECU0-00-14.7%
T1RiceRICE0-01-01.1%
T1UABUAB0-01-01.0%
T1TempleTEM0-01-00.4%
T1FL AtlanticFAU0-00-10.2%
T1CharlotteCLT0-00-1<0.1%
T1TulsaTLSA0-01-0-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely American Athletic Conference CCG Matchups

114.5%
MemphisMEM
vs
TULNTulane
29.6%
ArmyARMY
vs
TULNTulane
38.9%
ArmyARMY
vs
MEMMemphis
47.8%
NavyNAVY
vs
TULNTulane
57.3%
South FloridaUSF
vs
TULNTulane
66.9%
MemphisMEM
vs
USFSouth Florida
75.9%
MemphisMEM
vs
NAVYNavy
85.0%
ArmyARMY
vs
NAVYNavy
94.5%
ArmyARMY
vs
USFSouth Florida
104.1%
TulaneTULN
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
113.9%
MemphisMEM
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
123.0%
NavyNAVY
vs
USFSouth Florida
132.5%
ArmyARMY
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
142.3%
South FloridaUSF
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
151.7%
NavyNAVY
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on American Athletic Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 46.5%
Game
TulaneCCG OddsAway
TulaneCCG OddsHome
MemphisMEM@Georgia StGAST
46.5%
(-0.0%)		46.6%
(+0.1%)
Texas StTXST@UT San AntonioUTSA
46.5%
(-0.0%)		46.6%
(+0.1%)
South FloridaUSF@FloridaFLA
46.1%
(-0.4%)		46.6%
(+0.1%)
Florida A&MFAMU@FL AtlanticFAU
46.4%
(-0.1%)		46.5%
(+0.0%)
North CarolinaUNC@CharlotteCLT
46.5%
(-0.0%)		46.5%
(+0.0%)
TulaneTULN@South AlabamaUSA
46.9%
(+0.4%)		46.0%
(-0.5%)
TulsaTLSA@New Mexico StNMSU
46.6%
(+0.1%)		46.5%
(-0.0%)
HowardHOW@TempleTEM
46.5%
(-0.0%)		46.5%
(+0.0%)
HoustonHOU@RiceRICE
46.6%
(+0.1%)		46.4%
(-0.1%)
UABUAB@NavyNAVY
48.7%
(+2.2%)		46.1%
(-0.4%)
CampbellCAM@East CarolinaECU
46.6%
(+0.1%)		46.5%
(-0.0%)
North TexasUNT@W MichiganWMU
46.5%
(-0.0%)		46.5%
(+0.0%)
ArmyARMY@Kansas StKSU
46.5%
(-0.0%)		46.5%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-18-07-27-16-36-25-45-3Overall
TulaneTULN--100%-90.3%-19.9%-0.1%46.5%
MemphisMEM--100%-95.2%-36.1%-0.4%42.7%
ArmyARMY100%80.5%-35.7%-6.9%-<0.1%-32.8%
South FloridaUSF--100%-89.8%-27.0%-0.3%25.4%
NavyNAVY100%81.8%-42.0%-6.6%-<0.1%-24.8%
UT San AntonioUTSA--100%-94.8%-41.3%-0.7%15.4%
North TexasUNT--100%-88.8%-29.5%-0.4%4.8%
East CarolinaECU--100%-90.6%-18.9%-<0.1%4.7%
RiceRICE--100%-93.2%-28.1%-0.2%1.1%
UABUAB--100%-93.3%-33.3%-0.3%1.0%
TempleTEM--100%-91.7%-34.3%-0.2%0.4%
FL AtlanticFAU----100%-38.7%-0.6%0.2%
CharlotteCLT----100%-51.7%-1.6%<0.1%
TulsaTLSA------50.0%---

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-18-07-27-16-36-25-45-34-54-43-63-52-72-61-81-70-80-9Avg Wins
ArmyARMY(0-0)4.3%18.9%0.0%31.8%0.0%27.3%0.0%13.3%0.0%3.7%0.0%0.6%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%6.6
TulaneTULN(0-0)-0.0%11.2%0.0%31.6%0.0%34.1%0.0%17.6%0.0%4.8%0.0%0.7%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%-6.2
NavyNAVY(0-0)2.0%11.6%0.0%27.0%0.0%30.1%0.0%19.8%0.0%7.5%0.0%1.7%0.0%0.2%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%6.2
MemphisMEM(0-0)-0.0%7.5%0.0%24.5%0.0%32.7%0.0%23.0%0.0%9.6%0.0%2.4%0.0%0.3%0.0%<0.1%0.0%-5.9
South FloridaUSF(0-0)-0.0%3.0%0.0%15.7%0.0%30.2%0.0%29.5%0.0%15.9%0.0%4.7%0.0%0.8%0.0%<0.1%0.0%-5.4
UT San AntonioUTSA(0-0)-0.0%0.9%0.0%6.6%0.0%19.3%0.0%29.1%0.0%25.7%0.0%13.4%0.0%4.1%0.0%0.7%<0.1%-4.7
East CarolinaECU(0-0)-0.0%0.2%0.0%2.5%0.0%11.4%0.0%26.4%0.0%32.0%0.0%20.3%0.0%6.3%0.0%0.9%<0.1%-4.2
North TexasUNT(0-0)-0.0%0.2%0.0%2.1%0.0%9.2%0.0%21.2%0.0%29.5%0.0%23.5%0.0%11.2%0.0%2.8%0.3%-3.9
RiceRICE(0-0)-0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.3%0.0%2.8%0.0%11.0%0.0%24.7%0.0%31.2%0.0%21.5%0.0%7.5%1.1%-3.2
UABUAB(0-0)-0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.3%0.0%2.2%0.0%9.2%0.0%22.3%0.0%30.9%0.0%24.4%0.0%9.4%1.3%-3.0
TempleTEM(0-0)-0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.1%0.0%1.0%0.0%5.4%0.0%16.9%0.0%30.0%0.0%29.8%0.0%14.4%2.3%-2.7
FL AtlanticFAU(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.3%0.0%2.3%0.0%10.9%0.0%27.6%0.0%35.6%0.0%20.1%3.1%-2.3
CharlotteCLT(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%1.1%0.0%6.1%0.0%18.9%0.0%33.5%0.0%29.9%10.4%-1.8
TulsaTLSA(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.4%0.0%3.9%0.0%17.6%0.0%41.0%37.0%-0.9

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com