Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W27-0 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:48% | |
| 3 | 9/12 | Win prob:26% | |
| 5 | 9/26 | Win prob:43% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:31% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:48% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:47% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:10% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:44% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:21% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:16% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:19% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-2 | 0.2% | 63.4% |
| 6-3 | 1.4% | 7.4% |
| 5-4 | 6.2% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 16.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 27.8% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 28.2% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 15.9% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 3.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.2% (-0.1%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.1%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.1%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.1%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Any 1 loss
<0.1%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
<0.1%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
31.8%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
17.9%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02