Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
24.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W52-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:83% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:93% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:82% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:72% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:76% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:89% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:61% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:2% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:56% | |
| 14 | 11/27 | Win prob:34% | |
| 12/13 | Win prob:41% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 2.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 11.6% | 81.8% |
| 7-2 | 27.0% | 42.0% |
| 6-3 | 30.1% | 6.6% |
| 5-4 | 19.8% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 7.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 1.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 24.8% (-0.1%) | 25.3% (+0.5%) | |
| 24.7% (-0.1%) | 25.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 25.0% (+0.1%) | 24.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 25.0% (+0.1%) | 24.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 24.8% (-0.1%) | 25.0% (+0.2%) | |
| 24.9% (+0.1%) | 24.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 24.1% (-0.8%) | 25.0% (+0.2%) | |
| 24.8% (-0.1%) | 24.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 24.8% (-0.0%) | 24.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 8.6% (-16.2%) | 28.1% (+3.3%) | |
| 25.5% (+0.7%) | 24.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 25.0% (+0.2%) | 24.6% (-0.2%) | |
| 24.4% (-0.4%) | 25.1% (+0.2%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
98.2%
1.6%
100.0%
1.4%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
91.3%
<0.1%
85.0%
<0.1%
75.0%
<0.1%
75.0%
<0.1%
71.4%
<0.1%
70.2%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
82.0%
9.0%100.0%
2.0%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.0%
0.2%86.7%
0.3%85.7%
<0.1%85.0%
0.3%83.3%
0.9%82.3%
0.4%77.2%
<0.1%72.5%
1.1%72.1%
<0.1%70.7%
2.8%69.2%
<0.1%59.4%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
47.8%
22.4%100.0%
0.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%91.1%
0.1%87.1%
0.5%85.7%
<0.1%85.5%
<0.1%84.4%
0.4%84.2%
0.5%84.1%
0.3%83.3%
1.3%83.3%
<0.1%82.0%
0.1%81.9%
0.6%78.8%
0.2%78.6%
0.2%77.8%
<0.1%75.6%
1.6%75.3%
0.4%72.7%
<0.1%70.4%
4.2%67.7%
1.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.5%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.4%
0.2%24.4%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%24.0%
0.1%22.4%
<0.1%21.3%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%21.1%
0.2%21.0%
0.3%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.0%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.7%
0.2%12.8%
<0.1%12.8%
0.4%11.8%
0.7%11.8%
0.2%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
0.6%10.6%
0.3%10.4%
0.9%9.3%
0.7%8.7%
1.8%8.3%
<0.1%7.3%
0.4%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
2.2%5.6%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
21.1%
21.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.8%
<0.1%85.4%
0.3%84.9%
0.2%84.2%
0.1%83.5%
0.5%80.8%
0.2%76.2%
0.7%68.9%
1.7%50.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%39.1%
<0.1%34.2%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.1%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%27.0%
<0.1%25.4%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.2%
0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.3%
<0.1%20.0%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.4%
0.1%17.4%
0.2%16.7%
<0.1%16.5%
0.2%15.4%
0.2%15.4%
<0.1%15.2%
0.4%14.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.8%
0.1%13.6%
0.2%13.4%
0.4%12.8%
<0.1%12.2%
0.4%11.9%
<0.1%11.8%
0.3%11.6%
<0.1%11.3%
1.0%11.2%
0.5%11.1%
0.1%10.7%
0.9%10.7%
<0.1%10.6%
0.3%10.0%
0.2%10.0%
0.8%9.9%
0.3%9.7%
0.5%9.6%
0.2%9.5%
0.3%9.3%
1.3%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
2.5%8.9%
0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
0.8%7.0%
0.1%5.5%
3.1%4.3%
0.9%3.7%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02