Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
46.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W23-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:55% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:73% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:12% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:96% | |
| 7 | 10/09 | Win prob:83% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:63% | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:62% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:48% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:93% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:85% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:94% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 11.2% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 31.6% | 90.3% |
| 6-2 | 34.1% | 19.9% |
| 5-3 | 17.6% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 4.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 46.5% (-0.0%) | 46.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 46.5% (-0.0%) | 46.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 46.1% (-0.4%) | 46.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 46.4% (-0.1%) | 46.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 46.5% (-0.0%) | 46.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 46.9% (+0.4%) | 46.0% (-0.5%) | |
| 46.6% (+0.1%) | 46.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 46.5% (-0.0%) | 46.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 46.6% (+0.1%) | 46.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 48.7% (+2.2%) | 46.1% (-0.4%) | |
| 46.6% (+0.1%) | 46.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 46.5% (-0.0%) | 46.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 46.5% (-0.0%) | 46.5% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.5%Any 1 loss
98.1%
6.1%
100.0%
4.0%
100.0%
0.4%
100.0%
0.2%
100.0%
<0.1%
97.4%
0.1%
96.3%
0.1%
96.0%
0.3%
90.5%
<0.1%
90.0%
0.6%
89.5%
0.3%
88.6%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
87.3%
19.3%100.0%
3.2%100.0%
1.4%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.7%
0.1%97.9%
0.3%97.6%
<0.1%97.2%
<0.1%97.1%
0.2%95.7%
<0.1%95.4%
0.7%95.0%
0.1%94.3%
0.3%94.2%
0.9%93.8%
0.1%93.5%
2.4%93.2%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%89.9%
0.3%89.9%
0.1%89.1%
0.2%89.0%
0.5%88.4%
4.3%87.8%
2.3%87.0%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.3%
<0.1%28.0%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.4%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%20.9%
<0.1%20.5%
<0.1%19.8%
0.1%15.4%
0.2%11.7%
0.4%9.5%
0.3%Any 3 losses
56.7%
29.0%100.0%
1.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%96.2%
0.1%96.2%
0.3%96.1%
0.2%96.0%
0.3%95.9%
0.1%95.5%
<0.1%95.2%
0.1%95.0%
0.3%94.7%
<0.1%94.3%
0.7%93.0%
0.9%93.0%
0.5%92.9%
<0.1%91.4%
1.9%89.4%
1.9%88.2%
0.2%87.6%
0.1%87.2%
1.6%86.8%
3.5%86.7%
0.8%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%53.1%
<0.1%46.8%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%39.7%
<0.1%38.7%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
0.1%35.1%
0.1%33.9%
0.1%33.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.5%
0.2%32.0%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%31.7%
0.4%30.8%
<0.1%30.4%
0.4%29.1%
0.5%28.6%
0.1%28.1%
0.1%27.8%
0.3%26.9%
0.8%26.7%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.9%
0.3%24.0%
0.2%23.8%
<0.1%23.0%
0.1%22.9%
<0.1%22.6%
0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.6%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.5%
0.9%19.4%
0.1%18.8%
0.5%18.6%
<0.1%17.6%
0.2%17.4%
0.3%17.0%
2.6%17.0%
<0.1%16.2%
1.4%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%12.6%
2.5%12.0%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%9.7%
0.3%8.4%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
31.7%
18.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.2%
0.2%95.7%
<0.1%94.2%
<0.1%92.6%
0.3%91.8%
0.7%91.2%
<0.1%86.2%
0.7%86.0%
1.3%80.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.6%
<0.1%48.5%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%42.0%
0.1%39.7%
0.1%38.1%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.0%
<0.1%35.1%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%34.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.5%
0.2%31.9%
0.2%31.8%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.7%
0.1%29.1%
<0.1%29.1%
0.3%28.6%
0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.3%
<0.1%27.5%
0.2%27.1%
0.1%27.0%
0.3%26.4%
0.2%26.2%
<0.1%26.2%
0.6%26.1%
<0.1%26.0%
0.3%25.9%
<0.1%25.0%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.4%
0.4%23.5%
<0.1%23.3%
0.3%23.0%
0.1%22.3%
0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.5%
0.3%19.1%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.5%
0.4%17.8%
0.1%17.4%
0.8%17.4%
0.2%16.9%
1.2%16.8%
1.0%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.3%
2.1%15.2%
0.5%14.3%
<0.1%11.2%
2.0%10.5%
0.9%7.5%
0.1%4.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.1%
0.2%0.8%
0.1%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02