Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
42.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W45-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:86% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:60% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:62% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:86% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:97% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:79% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:65% | |
| 10 | 10/31 | Win prob:77% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:52% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:67% | |
| 14 | 11/27 | Win prob:66% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 7.5% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 24.5% | 95.2% |
| 6-2 | 32.7% | 36.1% |
| 5-3 | 23.0% | 0.4% |
| 4-4 | 9.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 2.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 42.9% (+0.1%) | 41.9% (-0.8%) | |
| 43.0% (+0.3%) | 42.3% (-0.4%) | |
| 42.9% (+0.2%) | 42.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 42.1% (-0.6%) | 42.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 42.8% (+0.0%) | 42.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 42.6% (-0.1%) | 42.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 43.0% (+0.3%) | 42.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 43.0% (+0.3%) | 42.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 42.7% (-0.0%) | 42.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 45.1% (+2.4%) | 42.3% (-0.5%) | |
| 42.0% (-0.7%) | 42.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 42.5% (-0.2%) | 43.0% (+0.2%) | |
| 43.3% (+0.5%) | 42.5% (-0.3%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
2.5%Any 1 loss
96.8%
11.3%
100.0%
0.4%
100.0%
1.6%
100.0%
1.5%
100.0%
<0.1%
98.5%
0.7%
98.2%
1.2%
98.1%
0.6%
97.8%
0.4%
94.9%
1.3%
93.4%
1.3%
93.2%
2.2%Any 2 losses
69.0%
23.4%100.0%
0.9%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.1%
0.1%99.1%
0.4%98.9%
0.3%98.8%
0.5%98.5%
0.3%98.2%
0.4%98.1%
<0.1%98.1%
0.1%98.0%
0.4%98.0%
0.8%97.9%
0.2%97.8%
0.7%95.8%
0.2%94.6%
0.9%94.4%
0.8%94.4%
0.2%94.1%
0.8%93.2%
0.9%92.3%
1.5%91.9%
1.4%91.1%
0.4%70.0%
<0.1%67.0%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.1%
0.2%58.4%
0.3%57.3%
0.1%56.5%
0.4%53.8%
<0.1%47.5%
0.2%46.9%
<0.1%43.8%
0.3%42.9%
<0.1%42.8%
0.2%41.5%
0.2%41.0%
0.4%40.1%
0.7%39.7%
0.4%38.9%
0.4%37.8%
0.7%37.6%
0.6%37.6%
0.6%36.7%
0.4%35.1%
<0.1%34.2%
1.1%24.3%
0.7%22.5%
1.1%21.1%
1.2%Any 3 losses
44.1%
23.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.7%
0.2%98.7%
0.3%98.2%
0.3%97.9%
<0.1%97.5%
<0.1%97.5%
<0.1%96.6%
0.1%96.1%
0.5%95.2%
0.1%95.2%
0.1%94.3%
0.1%93.4%
0.5%93.3%
0.5%93.3%
<0.1%93.2%
0.2%92.9%
<0.1%92.4%
0.9%91.6%
0.2%91.4%
0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.9%
<0.1%67.1%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.8%
<0.1%65.2%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.1%
<0.1%63.9%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.8%
0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.2%
0.1%60.0%
0.1%59.6%
0.2%56.3%
0.2%53.6%
<0.1%53.3%
0.2%53.2%
0.3%50.0%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.6%
0.1%45.4%
0.2%44.9%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%43.3%
<0.1%42.6%
<0.1%42.3%
<0.1%41.9%
0.2%41.8%
0.4%41.7%
<0.1%41.4%
0.2%40.6%
0.4%40.3%
<0.1%40.1%
0.3%39.9%
0.4%39.6%
<0.1%39.4%
0.1%39.1%
0.4%39.1%
0.1%38.9%
0.1%38.9%
0.1%38.9%
<0.1%38.8%
0.4%38.6%
0.4%38.0%
0.4%37.8%
0.4%37.3%
0.3%37.1%
0.2%36.7%
0.1%36.7%
0.1%36.5%
0.2%35.9%
0.2%35.4%
0.3%35.0%
<0.1%34.5%
0.1%34.4%
<0.1%34.1%
0.2%33.8%
0.7%33.3%
0.2%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.7%
0.7%31.3%
<0.1%27.3%
0.2%27.3%
0.4%27.2%
0.2%27.0%
0.1%24.5%
0.4%22.1%
0.8%20.3%
0.7%19.7%
0.8%18.8%
0.8%12.5%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%2.1%
0.1%1.7%
0.2%1.5%
<0.1%1.3%
0.3%1.2%
0.2%1.2%
<0.1%1.0%
0.2%0.9%
0.3%0.9%
0.2%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.3%0.6%
0.3%0.6%
0.3%0.5%
0.2%0.5%
0.2%Any 4 losses
27.6%
10.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.1%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%94.7%
0.1%90.9%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%69.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.7%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.3%
0.1%58.3%
<0.1%56.1%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.6%
<0.1%53.1%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.6%
<0.1%47.9%
<0.1%47.1%
0.1%45.8%
<0.1%45.7%
0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.3%
<0.1%45.1%
0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.0%
<0.1%43.0%
<0.1%42.0%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.8%
<0.1%40.7%
<0.1%40.6%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.3%
<0.1%39.3%
0.2%39.1%
0.2%38.8%
0.1%37.8%
0.2%36.9%
<0.1%36.9%
<0.1%36.1%
0.3%35.3%
<0.1%35.3%
0.3%34.6%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.6%
<0.1%32.4%
0.3%31.1%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.3%
0.5%29.6%
<0.1%29.5%
<0.1%28.8%
0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.9%
<0.1%26.7%
0.3%26.3%
<0.1%25.8%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.5%
0.5%22.1%
0.1%22.1%
0.1%19.1%
0.5%19.1%
0.1%18.7%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.3%
0.2%1.2%
<0.1%1.2%
0.2%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.5%
0.4%0.5%
0.4%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02