Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
32.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L27-30 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:34% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:81% | |
| 5 | 9/25 | Win prob:67% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:79% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:93% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:37% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:66% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:97% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:57% | |
| 12/13 | Win prob:59% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 4.3% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 18.9% | 80.5% |
| 7-2 | 31.8% | 35.7% |
| 6-3 | 27.3% | 6.9% |
| 5-4 | 13.3% | 0.1% |
| 4-5 | 3.7% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 32.7% (-0.0%) | 33.0% (+0.3%) | |
| 32.7% (-0.0%) | 32.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 32.4% (-0.4%) | 32.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 32.6% (-0.2%) | 32.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 32.9% (+0.1%) | 32.6% (-0.2%) | |
| 32.6% (-0.2%) | 33.0% (+0.2%) | |
| 32.7% (-0.0%) | 32.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 32.8% (+0.0%) | 32.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 32.7% (-0.1%) | 32.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 37.0% (+4.2%) | 31.9% (-0.9%) | |
| 33.0% (+0.3%) | 32.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 32.7% (-0.1%) | 32.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 32.8% (+0.1%) | 32.7% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.0%Any 1 loss
87.3%
6.6%
100.0%
0.5%
100.0%
1.8%
100.0%
0.7%
88.0%
0.1%
85.7%
0.2%
85.3%
0.3%
84.0%
<0.1%
83.9%
0.4%
81.3%
0.7%
77.1%
<0.1%
69.5%
1.7%Any 2 losses
64.2%
18.6%100.0%
1.3%100.0%
1.0%100.0%
0.4%92.3%
<0.1%91.5%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.3%
0.1%87.0%
0.2%86.8%
0.5%86.7%
0.2%86.2%
0.9%85.1%
0.2%84.5%
<0.1%83.1%
0.3%82.3%
1.4%82.1%
0.2%81.9%
0.1%81.8%
0.5%80.8%
<0.1%80.7%
0.4%80.0%
<0.1%79.9%
0.3%78.9%
0.1%73.7%
<0.1%70.0%
3.3%69.3%
1.2%68.5%
0.9%57.1%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.1%
<0.1%31.4%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.5%
<0.1%25.2%
0.1%22.2%
0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%19.0%
<0.1%19.0%
0.2%18.5%
0.2%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
0.3%16.3%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.1%
0.4%13.9%
0.2%12.5%
0.4%11.4%
0.1%11.2%
0.8%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.2%
1.3%Any 3 losses
39.9%
24.9%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%88.0%
0.1%87.9%
0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.2%
0.4%85.5%
0.5%85.5%
0.2%84.9%
<0.1%84.0%
0.2%83.3%
<0.1%82.7%
1.0%82.6%
0.1%82.3%
0.1%82.1%
0.3%81.7%
0.6%81.6%
<0.1%81.3%
0.3%80.7%
0.7%77.8%
0.3%75.0%
<0.1%68.0%
2.3%67.9%
0.6%67.8%
1.6%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.4%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%25.8%
<0.1%25.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.6%
0.1%23.2%
0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.7%
0.2%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.5%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.2%
0.3%20.1%
0.2%19.8%
0.1%19.7%
<0.1%19.6%
0.1%19.5%
0.4%18.9%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
0.1%17.4%
0.4%17.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.6%
0.2%16.4%
<0.1%16.3%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.7%
0.2%15.6%
0.1%14.4%
0.7%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.2%
0.2%14.2%
0.1%14.2%
0.1%13.8%
0.2%13.8%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.1%
0.1%12.7%
0.3%12.5%
<0.1%12.1%
0.8%11.4%
<0.1%11.3%
0.5%11.2%
1.5%11.1%
0.4%10.5%
0.3%10.4%
0.7%10.4%
0.1%10.1%
0.2%9.4%
0.3%9.3%
2.4%8.6%
0.6%8.1%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.2%
0.9%1.1%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02