Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | L0-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L0-68 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:31% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:90% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:18% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:55% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:24% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:56% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:21% | |
| 10 | 11/04 | Win prob:75% | |
| 11 | 11/11 | Win prob:84% | |
| 12 | 11/18 | Win prob:17% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.5% | 85.9% |
| 6-2 | 3.9% | 25.2% |
| 5-3 | 15.0% | 0.3% |
| 4-4 | 29.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 30.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 16.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 3.8% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.6% (+0.1%) | 1.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.6% (+0.0%) | 1.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.5% (-0.0%) | 1.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.6% (+0.0%) | 1.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.5% (+0.0%) | 1.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.5% (+0.0%) | 1.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.3% (-0.2%) | 1.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.5% (-0.0%) | 1.7% (+0.2%) | |
| 1.6% (+0.0%) | 1.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.3% (-0.2%) | 1.5% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Central Michigan
Western Michigan
Eastern Michigan
New Hampshire
MassachusettsCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Ball State
Toledo
Kent State
IowaCCG: 1.8% • Scenario: 9.4%
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
87.7%
0.2%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
91.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%
87.5%
<0.1%
82.1%
<0.1%81.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
41.1%
1.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%91.9%
<0.1%87.8%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.4%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.1%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.9%
<0.1%51.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%41.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.1%
0.1%31.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.0%
0.2%23.1%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.9%
0.1%19.8%
0.1%19.7%
0.1%10.2%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07