Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
10.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L20-27 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W31-7 | |
| 3 | 9/12 | Win prob:74% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:84% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:53% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:29% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:57% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:40% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:78% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:62% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:45% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:35% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.2% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 2.1% | 99.3% |
| 7-2 | 8.3% | 74.9% |
| 6-3 | 19.3% | 10.3% |
| 5-4 | 26.9% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 24.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 13.5% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 4.7% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.9% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 10.5% (+0.0%) | 10.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 10.1% (-0.4%) | 10.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 10.4% (-0.1%) | 10.7% (+0.2%) | |
| 10.5% (-0.0%) | 10.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 10.6% (+0.1%) | 10.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 10.5% (+0.0%) | 10.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 10.7% (+0.2%) | 10.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 12.7% (+2.2%) | 4.3% (-6.2%) | |
| 10.3% (-0.1%) | 10.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 10.7% (+0.2%) | 10.4% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 12.7% • Scenario: 74.0%
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
99.3%
1.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%99.7%
0.3%99.3%
0.3%99.0%
0.4%98.5%
0.2%98.1%
0.1%Any 2 losses
76.2%
7.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.2%
<0.1%89.1%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%87.7%
<0.1%87.2%
<0.1%87.1%
0.1%86.8%
0.2%85.6%
0.1%83.9%
<0.1%83.8%
0.3%83.3%
<0.1%82.5%
0.2%82.1%
<0.1%80.8%
0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.8%
0.2%78.8%
0.2%77.4%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%75.9%
0.2%75.6%
<0.1%74.0%
0.4%74.0%
0.6%73.0%
0.1%73.0%
0.4%72.6%
0.8%71.9%
0.2%71.8%
0.1%70.8%
0.3%70.8%
0.4%69.4%
0.3%67.1%
0.3%66.3%
0.5%59.7%
0.1%Any 3 losses
15.1%
17.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%85.3%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.1%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.8%
0.1%79.4%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%76.1%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.6%
<0.1%73.3%
0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.3%
0.2%70.8%
<0.1%70.5%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.0%
0.1%65.4%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.0%
<0.1%61.3%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%24.7%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%21.8%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%21.0%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.1%
0.1%17.8%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%17.3%
0.2%16.9%
<0.1%16.5%
<0.1%16.2%
0.1%16.0%
0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.3%
<0.1%15.1%
0.2%14.9%
0.1%14.8%
0.1%14.6%
0.2%14.6%
0.1%14.6%
0.1%14.6%
0.2%14.5%
<0.1%14.1%
0.1%14.1%
<0.1%14.0%
0.4%13.9%
0.2%13.7%
0.2%13.1%
0.1%12.8%
0.3%12.8%
<0.1%12.6%
0.3%12.3%
<0.1%12.3%
0.1%12.3%
<0.1%11.8%
0.2%11.6%
0.2%11.4%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.8%
0.3%10.6%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.4%
<0.1%10.4%
0.3%10.0%
<0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.6%
0.7%9.4%
0.2%9.2%
0.4%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
0.2%8.8%
0.2%8.6%
0.2%8.5%
0.4%8.5%
0.3%8.5%
1.2%8.4%
0.6%8.3%
0.4%8.0%
0.1%7.3%
0.4%7.2%
0.5%7.2%
0.2%7.1%
0.8%6.9%
0.1%6.8%
0.9%6.2%
0.3%6.1%
0.3%6.1%
0.4%6.1%
0.3%6.0%
0.4%5.9%
<0.1%4.5%
0.6%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07