Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W40-6 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W48-3 | |
| 3 | 9/12 | W23-17 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:22% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:85% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:29% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:44% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:18% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:35% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:35% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:39% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:16% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.1% | 97.7% |
| 7-2 | 0.7% | 72.7% |
| 6-3 | 3.7% | 8.8% |
| 5-4 | 12.2% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 23.6% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 29.9% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 21.5% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 7.7% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.9% (-0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.1%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.1%) | 0.9% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 9.5% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 1.1% • Scenario: 23.5%
Data from 2025-09-14
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
98.1%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
72.7%
0.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.1%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.5%
<0.1%72.9%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%69.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
8.8%
3.6%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.5%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.7%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.5%
0.2%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.9%
0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.0%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.4%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.9%
0.1%6.8%
0.1%6.6%
0.3%6.5%
0.1%6.2%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
0.2%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14