UtahUtes

3-0 T3rd (0-0) in B12

Data from 2025-09-14 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

15.6%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	@UCLAUCLA	W43-10
2	9/06	vsCal PolyCP	W63-9
3	9/13	@WyomingWYO	W31-6
4	9/20	vsTexas TechTTU	Win prob:58%
5	9/27	@West VirginiaWVU	Win prob:66%
7	10/11	vsArizona StateASU	Win prob:51%
8	10/18	@BYUBYU	Win prob:38%
9	10/25	vsColoradoCOLO	Win prob:55%
10	11/01	vsCincinnatiCIN	Win prob:75%
12	11/15	@BaylorBAY	Win prob:50%
13	11/22	vsKansas StateKSU	Win prob:55%
14	11/28	@KansasKU	Win prob:46%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	0.4%	100.0%
8-1	3.0%	99.5%
7-2	10.8%	77.8%
6-3	20.9%	18.1%
5-4	26.6%	0.1%
4-5	21.9%	0%
3-6	11.6%	0%
2-7	3.9%	0%
1-8	0.8%	0%
0-9	0.1%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

28.6%

24.5%

17.6%

16.7%

12.6%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
North CarolinaUNC@UCFUCF	15.9% (+0.3%)	15.4% (-0.1%)
West VirginiaWVU@KansasKU	16.1% (+0.6%)	15.4% (-0.2%)
TulsaTLSA@Oklahoma StateOKST	15.2% (-0.3%)	15.7% (+0.1%)
SMUSMU@TCUTCU	15.8% (+0.3%)	15.4% (-0.2%)
Texas TechTTU@UtahUTAH	7.2% (-8.4%)	21.6% (+6.1%)
BYUBYU@East CarolinaECU	15.6% (+0.0%)	15.6% (-0.0%)
Arizona StateASU@BaylorBAY	15.2% (-0.3%)	16.0% (+0.4%)
WyomingWYO@ColoradoCOLO	15.6% (+0.0%)	15.6% (+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

UCF

West Virginia

Tulsa

SMU

Utah

East Carolina

Baylor

Colorado

CCG: 36.8% • Scenario: 0.1%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Utah

CCG: 21.6% • Scenario: 57.9%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.4%

Any 1 loss

99.5%

3.0%

100.0%

0.4%

100.0%

0.3%

100.0%

0.2%

100.0%

0.1%

99.7%

0.3%

99.5%

0.4%

99.5%

0.6%

99.0%

0.4%

98.8%

0.3%

Any 2 losses

77.8%

10.8%

94.8%

<0.1%

94.0%

0.2%

91.6%

<0.1%

89.0%

0.1%

87.8%

0.2%

87.5%

0.2%

86.7%

0.1%

85.4%

0.2%

84.7%

0.1%

84.5%

0.1%

84.0%

0.3%

83.5%

0.2%

83.0%

0.2%

82.9%

0.4%

82.4%

0.3%

82.1%

0.2%

81.0%

0.2%

80.8%

0.4%

80.0%

0.2%

79.5%

0.3%

79.3%

0.4%

78.8%

0.2%

76.9%

0.3%

76.8%

0.5%

76.2%

0.5%

75.8%

0.5%

75.7%

0.8%

75.4%

0.6%

74.9%

0.3%

72.4%

0.1%

71.3%

0.4%

71.3%

0.3%

70.4%

0.3%

69.7%

0.4%

68.6%

0.3%

64.9%

0.6%

Any 3 losses

18.1%

20.9%

34.2%

<0.1%

32.6%

<0.1%

29.4%

0.2%

29.3%

0.1%

29.2%

<0.1%

28.0%

<0.1%

26.6%

0.1%

26.5%

0.1%

25.7%

0.2%

25.6%

0.1%

24.6%

<0.1%

24.6%

<0.1%

23.5%

0.2%

23.2%

0.1%

22.6%

0.4%

22.5%

0.1%

22.4%

0.3%

22.2%

0.1%

22.1%

0.3%

21.8%

<0.1%

21.7%

0.2%

21.6%

0.2%

21.3%

0.4%

21.1%

<0.1%

20.5%

0.2%

20.5%

0.2%

20.2%

0.4%

20.2%

0.1%

20.2%

0.6%

20.1%

0.5%

20.0%

<0.1%

19.8%

0.2%

19.6%

0.1%

19.3%

0.2%

19.2%

0.3%

19.0%

0.3%

18.8%

0.1%

18.8%

0.2%

18.8%

0.3%

18.5%

0.1%

18.5%

<0.1%

18.4%

0.7%

18.3%

0.2%

18.2%

0.4%

18.2%

0.2%

18.2%

0.1%

18.2%

0.2%

17.9%

0.2%

17.9%

0.4%

17.9%

0.2%

17.8%

<0.1%

17.8%

0.1%

17.8%

0.3%

17.6%

0.3%

17.5%

0.2%

17.5%

0.3%

17.3%

0.5%

17.0%

0.4%

16.9%

0.4%

16.7%

0.1%

16.6%

0.5%

16.6%

0.2%

16.4%

0.1%

16.3%

0.3%

16.2%

0.2%

16.1%

0.3%

16.0%

0.3%

15.9%

0.4%

15.9%

0.5%

15.6%

0.2%

15.4%

0.3%

15.3%

0.2%

15.0%

0.1%

14.8%

0.3%

14.5%

0.7%

14.5%

0.5%

14.1%

0.2%

13.8%

0.6%

13.0%

0.4%

12.8%

<0.1%

12.5%

0.3%

12.4%

0.4%

12.1%

0.5%

12.0%

0.1%

Any 4 losses

0.8%

0.5%

2.2%

<0.1%

0.9%

0.1%

0.6%

0.3%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com