Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
74.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W45-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W28-6 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W44-41 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:70% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:96% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:85% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:74% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:90% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:96% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:78% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:94% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 28.5% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 40.8% | 95.9% |
| 6-2 | 23.0% | 28.2% |
| 5-3 | 6.6% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 73.8% (-0.3%) | 74.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 74.1% (+0.0%) | 74.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 48.9% (-25.2%) | 84.7% (+10.6%) | |
| 76.5% (+2.4%) | 74.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 75.3% (+1.2%) | 73.6% (-0.5%) | |
| 74.4% (+0.3%) | 74.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 75.0% (+0.9%) | 73.6% (-0.5%) | |
| 74.0% (-0.1%) | 74.7% (+0.6%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 84.7% • Scenario: 70.4%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
26.5%Any 1 loss
96.1%
39.9%100.0%
1.6%100.0%
0.3%99.6%
1.2%98.6%
4.7%96.7%
2.8%96.6%
11.2%96.1%
7.5%94.1%
1.3%93.3%
9.3%Any 2 losses
36.0%
24.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.0%
0.3%98.7%
<0.1%98.3%
0.2%97.3%
0.7%97.1%
<0.1%94.9%
0.4%94.6%
0.1%94.3%
<0.1%94.2%
0.6%93.1%
0.1%92.7%
<0.1%60.2%
0.2%59.0%
<0.1%59.0%
0.1%50.5%
0.5%50.2%
0.2%45.3%
0.1%40.5%
0.5%39.8%
1.2%38.9%
0.4%37.2%
1.0%34.8%
1.7%34.8%
0.3%33.8%
0.4%33.8%
2.0%31.8%
1.2%31.8%
0.8%31.7%
0.5%27.3%
0.3%20.8%
3.2%18.9%
2.7%15.6%
4.0%Any 3 losses
19.3%
2.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%51.6%
<0.1%48.1%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%43.4%
0.1%42.9%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%36.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.5%
0.1%32.0%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%26.4%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.1%
0.2%19.2%
0.2%15.8%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.3%
0.2%11.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.2%0.7%
0.1%Any 4 losses
<0.1%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21