Ole MissRebels

5-0 T1st (3-0) in SEC

Data from 2025-09-28 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

46.9%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsGeorgia StateGAST	W63-7
2	9/06	@KentuckyUK	W30-23
3	9/13	vsArkansasARK	W41-35
4	9/20	vsTulaneTULN	W45-10
5	9/27	vsLSULSU	W24-19
7	10/11	vsWashington StateWSU	Win prob:99%
8	10/18	@GeorgiaUGA	Win prob:34%
9	10/25	@OklahomaOU	Win prob:74%
10	11/01	vsSouth CarolinaSC	Win prob:91%
11	11/08	vsThe CitadelCIT	Win prob:90%
12	11/15	vsFloridaFLA	Win prob:91%
14	11/28	@Mississippi StateMSST	Win prob:92%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	19.1%	98.0%
7-1	49.0%	55.3%
6-2	26.4%	4.0%
5-3	5.1%	0.0%
4-4	0.4%	0%
3-5	0.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

47.3%

27.9%

16.2%

4.5%

4.2%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
KentuckyUK@GeorgiaUGA	57.0% (+10.1%)	46.5% (-0.5%)
TexasTEX@FloridaFLA	45.4% (-1.6%)	55.2% (+8.2%)
Mississippi StateMSST@Texas A&MTA&M	48.5% (+1.5%)	46.7% (-0.3%)
Kent StateKENT@OklahomaOU	49.9% (+2.9%)	46.9% (-0.0%)
VanderbiltVAN@AlabamaALA	52.7% (+5.8%)	45.7% (-1.3%)

Best Winner Combination for

Kentucky

Florida

Mississippi State

Vanderbilt

CCG: 76.2% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Florida

CCG: 55.2% • Scenario: 16.1%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

98.0%

17.0%

Any 1 loss

57.2%

45.6%

98.4%

0.2%

98.1%

1.9%

85.8%

1.6%

84.6%

1.6%

84.5%

1.7%

76.8%

6.0%

46.9%

32.7%

Any 2 losses

14.0%

28.8%

96.8%

<0.1%

85.6%

0.2%

84.0%

0.2%

83.3%

0.2%

82.6%

<0.1%

81.8%

<0.1%

81.5%

<0.1%

80.5%

0.6%

77.8%

0.1%

48.7%

0.5%

48.1%

3.6%

22.4%

0.2%

17.9%

0.2%

15.7%

0.6%

14.8%

0.2%

8.3%

0.6%

7.5%

0.5%

5.3%

3.2%

4.4%

3.1%

3.9%

3.1%

2.1%

11.8%

Any 3 losses

5.3%

2.9%

100.0%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

57.1%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

23.5%

<0.1%

16.1%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

13.3%

<0.1%

9.1%

<0.1%

7.1%

<0.1%

7.1%

<0.1%

6.9%

<0.1%

6.8%

<0.1%

6.0%

0.3%

4.9%

0.4%

3.3%

0.4%

2.9%

0.2%

1.6%

1.3%

33.3%

<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com