DukeBlue Devils

3-2 T1st (2-0) in ACC

Data from 2025-09-28 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

11.2%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/28	vsElonELON	W45-17
2	9/06	vsIllinoisILL	L19-45
3	9/13	@TulaneTULN	L27-34
4	9/20	vsNC StateNCSU	W45-33
5	9/27	@SyracuseSYR	W38-3
6	10/04	@CaliforniaCAL	Win prob:48%
8	10/18	vsGeorgia TechGT	Win prob:45%
10	11/01	@ClemsonCLEM	Win prob:23%
11	11/08	@UConnCONN	Win prob:50%
12	11/15	vsVirginiaUVA	Win prob:47%
13	11/22	@North CarolinaUNC	Win prob:57%
14	11/29	vsWake ForestWAKE	Win prob:72%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	1.0%	100.0%
7-1	7.5%	79.1%
6-2	22.6%	18.7%
5-3	32.6%	0.1%
4-4	25.3%	0%
3-5	9.6%	0%
2-6	1.4%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

54.4%

23.5%

10.4%

8.5%

3.2%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
MiamiMIA@Florida StateFSU	10.6% (-0.6%)	13.4% (+2.2%)
SyracuseSYR@SMUSMU	13.0% (+1.8%)	10.7% (-0.5%)
Wake ForestWAKE@Virginia TechVT	11.9% (+0.7%)	10.8% (-0.4%)
VirginiaUVA@LouisvilleLOU	13.8% (+2.6%)	10.5% (-0.6%)
DukeDUKE@CaliforniaCAL	18.8% (+7.6%)	4.1% (-7.1%)
ClemsonCLEM@North CarolinaUNC	11.1% (-0.1%)	11.4% (+0.2%)
Boston CollegeBC@PittsburghPITT	11.2% (+0.1%)	11.2% (-0.0%)
CampbellCAM@NC StateNCSU	11.3% (+0.1%)	11.2% (-0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Florida State

Syracuse

Wake Forest

Louisville

Duke

North Carolina

Pittsburgh

Campbell

CCG: 62.5% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Duke

CCG: 18.8% • Scenario: 48.3%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.5%

Any 1 loss

81.4%

4.3%

100.0%

0.5%

86.9%

0.4%

81.9%

0.5%

81.7%

0.5%

81.7%

0.2%

77.6%

1.6%

71.7%

0.6%

Any 2 losses

33.9%

15.1%

86.8%

0.2%

85.7%

0.4%

80.3%

0.5%

79.3%

1.6%

75.7%

0.5%

74.6%

0.6%

36.4%

0.1%

29.0%

0.4%

25.1%

0.4%

24.7%

1.3%

23.5%

0.2%

23.0%

0.2%

22.1%

0.4%

20.7%

0.7%

20.4%

0.2%

19.0%

0.7%

18.7%

1.7%

18.5%

0.6%

16.2%

1.8%

13.6%

1.9%

10.9%

0.6%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com