Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
5.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W45-26 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W72-17 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L41-44 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W56-24 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W41-34 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:78% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:28% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:79% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:70% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:99% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:71% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:71% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 6.0% | 72.7% |
| 6-2 | 26.5% | 4.1% |
| 5-3 | 35.4% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 22.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 7.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 7.6% (+2.2%) | 5.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 5.1% (-0.3%) | 7.0% (+1.6%) | |
| 5.9% (+0.5%) | 5.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 4.8% (-0.6%) | 5.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.6% (+1.2%) | 5.2% (-0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Kentucky
Florida
Mississippi State
VanderbiltCCG: 23.8% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Florida
OklahomaCCG: 7.0% • Scenario: 16.0%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
72.6%
5.9%Any 1 loss
4.4%
26.2%
76.6%
0.1%7.3%
1.6%5.9%
2.4%
5.6%
1.7%5.4%
2.6%4.7%
2.6%
2.9%
15.2%Any 2 losses
4.8%
0.4%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.4%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28