Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-28

Atlantic Coast ConferenceConference Standings

T1Georgia TechGT2-05-026.6%
T1DukeDUKE2-03-211.2%
T1LouisvilleLOU1-04-043.4%
T1CaliforniaCAL1-04-13.8%
T1Virginia TechVT1-02-31.8%
6VirginiaUVA2-14-113.0%
T7NC StateNCSU2-23-20.8%
T7SyracuseSYR1-13-22.0%
T7StanfordSTAN1-12-3<0.1%
T10Miami FLMIA0-04-069.6%
T10SMUSMU0-02-221.9%
T10Florida StFSU0-13-13.1%
T10ClemsonCLEM0-21-31.5%
T10PittsburghPITT0-12-20.8%
T10North CarolinaUNC0-02-20.7%
T10Boston CollegeBC0-21-3<0.1%
T10Wake ForestWAKE0-22-2<0.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Atlantic Coast Conference CCG Matchups

124.9%
LouisvilleLOU
vs
MIAMiami FL
214.3%
Georgia TechGT
vs
MIAMiami FL
310.9%
Miami FLMIA
vs
SMUSMU
47.0%
Miami FLMIA
vs
UVAVirginia
55.9%
Georgia TechGT
vs
LOULouisville
65.8%
DukeDUKE
vs
MIAMiami FL
74.5%
LouisvilleLOU
vs
SMUSMU
82.8%
Georgia TechGT
vs
SMUSMU
92.5%
DukeDUKE
vs
LOULouisville
102.3%
LouisvilleLOU
vs
UVAVirginia
111.9%
CaliforniaCAL
vs
MIAMiami FL
121.4%
SMUSMU
vs
UVAVirginia
131.3%
Georgia TechGT
vs
UVAVirginia
141.2%
Florida StFSU
vs
MIAMiami FL
151.1%
DukeDUKE
vs
SMUSMU

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Atlantic Coast Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 69.6%
Game
Miami FLCCG OddsAway
Miami FLCCG OddsHome
Miami FLMIA@Florida StFSU
75.8%
(+6.2%)		47.5%
(-22.1%)
SyracuseSYR@SMUSMU
71.7%
(+2.1%)		69.0%
(-0.6%)
Wake ForestWAKE@Virginia TechVT
69.4%
(-0.2%)		69.7%
(+0.1%)
VirginiaUVA@LouisvilleLOU
68.5%
(-1.1%)		69.9%
(+0.3%)
DukeDUKE@CaliforniaCAL
68.9%
(-0.8%)		70.3%
(+0.7%)
ClemsonCLEM@North CarolinaUNC
69.5%
(-0.2%)		70.1%
(+0.5%)
Boston CollegeBC@PittsburghPITT
69.4%
(-0.3%)		69.8%
(+0.1%)
CampbellCAM@NC StateNCSU
70.0%
(+0.4%)		69.6%
(-0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for Miami FL

Florida StFlorida StateSyracuseSyracuseWake ForestWake ForestVirginiaVirginiaCaliforniaCaliforniaNorth CarolinaNorth CarolinaCampbellCampbell

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Miami FL

Miami FLMiami

CCG: 75.8% • Scenario: 78.1%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team8-08-17-17-26-26-35-3Overall
Miami FLMIA100%-96.1%-42.0%-0.9%69.6%
LouisvilleLOU100%-95.5%-38.4%-1.2%43.4%
Georgia TechGT100%-75.6%-17.7%-<0.1%26.6%
SMUSMU100%-89.3%-23.6%-0.1%21.9%
VirginiaUVA-99.0%-60.6%-2.6%-13.0%
DukeDUKE100%-79.1%-18.7%-0.1%11.2%
CaliforniaCAL100%-87.8%-21.5%-0.1%3.8%
Florida StFSU--89.3%-19.1%-<0.1%3.1%
SyracuseSYR--97.4%-38.6%-0.5%2.0%
Virginia TechVT100%-96.8%-44.4%-1.0%1.8%
ClemsonCLEM----37.5%-0.5%1.5%
NC StateNCSU---79.5%-4.1%-0.8%
PittsburghPITT--95.5%-24.0%-0.2%0.8%
North CarolinaUNC100%-68.6%-11.5%-<0.1%0.7%
Boston CollegeBC----50.0%-0.7%<0.1%
Wake ForestWAKE----44.2%-0.4%<0.1%
StanfordSTAN----26.7%--<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team8-08-17-17-26-26-35-35-44-44-53-53-62-62-71-70-8Avg Wins
Miami FLMIA(0-0)21.2%0.0%38.3%0.0%27.5%0.0%10.4%0.0%2.3%0.0%0.3%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%6.6
LouisvilleLOU(1-0)5.6%0.0%24.6%0.0%36.4%0.0%23.7%0.0%8.0%0.0%1.5%0.0%0.1%0.0%<0.1%-5.9
Georgia TechGT(2-0)5.3%0.0%20.6%0.0%32.1%0.0%26.8%0.0%12.0%0.0%3.0%0.0%0.3%---5.7
VirginiaUVA(2-1)-2.4%0.0%16.0%0.0%32.9%0.0%30.9%0.0%14.2%0.0%3.3%0.0%0.3%--5.5
SMUSMU(0-0)2.6%0.0%14.0%0.0%28.7%0.0%30.3%0.0%17.5%0.0%5.8%0.0%1.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%5.3
DukeDUKE(2-0)1.0%0.0%7.5%0.0%22.6%0.0%32.6%0.0%25.3%0.0%9.6%0.0%1.4%---4.9
Florida StFSU(0-1)--1.3%0.0%10.1%0.0%27.2%0.0%33.0%0.0%20.6%0.0%6.6%0.0%1.1%<0.1%4.1
NC StateNCSU(2-2)---0.5%0.0%7.7%0.0%27.1%0.0%37.6%0.0%22.5%0.0%4.6%--4.1
CaliforniaCAL(1-0)0.1%0.0%1.8%0.0%9.6%0.0%24.1%0.0%32.2%0.0%22.7%0.0%8.3%0.0%1.1%-4.1
SyracuseSYR(1-1)--0.3%0.0%4.2%0.0%19.0%0.0%35.8%0.0%29.1%0.0%10.2%0.0%1.4%-3.7
ClemsonCLEM(0-2)----3.6%0.0%18.9%0.0%33.8%0.0%28.3%0.0%12.4%0.0%2.6%0.2%3.6
Virginia TechVT(1-0)<0.1%0.0%0.3%0.0%3.0%0.0%12.2%0.0%28.0%0.0%33.5%0.0%19.1%0.0%3.9%-3.4
PittsburghPITT(0-1)--0.2%0.0%2.4%0.0%10.9%0.0%25.6%0.0%32.1%0.0%21.0%0.0%7.0%0.9%3.2
North CarolinaUNC(0-0)<0.1%0.0%0.4%0.0%2.8%0.0%10.1%0.0%22.0%0.0%30.0%0.0%23.7%0.0%9.6%1.5%3.1
StanfordSTAN(1-1)--0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.7%0.0%5.3%0.0%21.9%0.0%41.7%0.0%30.5%-2.0
Boston CollegeBC(0-2)----<0.1%0.0%1.1%0.0%6.5%0.0%20.0%0.0%33.6%0.0%28.9%10.0%1.9
Wake ForestWAKE(0-2)----<0.1%0.0%0.7%0.0%5.0%0.0%17.9%0.0%33.9%0.0%31.7%10.7%1.8

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com