LouisvilleCardinals

4-0 T1st (1-0) in ACC

Data from 2025-09-28 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

43.4%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsEastern KentuckyEKU	W51-17
2	9/05	vsJames MadisonJMU	W28-14
4	9/20	vsBowling GreenBGSU	W40-17
5	9/27	@PittsburghPITT	W34-27
6	10/04	vsVirginiaUVA	Win prob:80%
8	10/17	@MiamiMIA	Win prob:29%
9	10/25	vsBoston CollegeBC	Win prob:88%
10	11/01	@Virginia TechVT	Win prob:81%
11	11/08	vsCaliforniaCAL	Win prob:89%
12	11/14	vsClemsonCLEM	Win prob:72%
13	11/22	@SMUSMU	Win prob:51%
14	11/29	vsKentuckyUK	Win prob:81%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	5.6%	100.0%
7-1	24.6%	95.5%
6-2	36.4%	38.4%
5-3	23.7%	1.2%
4-4	8.0%	0%
3-5	1.5%	0%
2-6	0.1%	0%
1-7	0.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

62.1%

14.8%

11.1%

6.2%

5.7%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
MiamiMIA@Florida StateFSU	42.8% (-0.6%)	45.5% (+2.2%)
SyracuseSYR@SMUSMU	44.0% (+0.6%)	43.2% (-0.2%)
Wake ForestWAKE@Virginia TechVT	42.8% (-0.5%)	43.6% (+0.3%)
VirginiaUVA@LouisvilleLOU	18.0% (-25.4%)	49.6% (+6.2%)
DukeDUKE@CaliforniaCAL	41.6% (-1.7%)	45.0% (+1.6%)
ClemsonCLEM@North CarolinaUNC	43.5% (+0.1%)	43.0% (-0.3%)
Boston CollegeBC@PittsburghPITT	43.5% (+0.1%)	43.3% (-0.1%)
CampbellCAM@NC StateNCSU	43.3% (-0.1%)	43.4% (+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Florida State

Syracuse

Virginia Tech

Virginia

Duke

North Carolina

Pittsburgh

Campbell

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Louisville

CCG: 49.6% • Scenario: 80.3%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

4.6%

Any 1 loss

95.8%

21.0%

100.0%

1.0%

99.0%

0.6%

97.8%

1.1%

97.3%

0.6%

96.8%

4.2%

96.4%

1.7%

94.6%

10.7%

94.0%

1.0%

Any 2 losses

46.1%

34.2%

99.3%

0.1%

99.2%

0.1%

99.2%

0.3%

97.2%

1.0%

96.9%

0.2%

94.8%

0.4%

93.8%

2.4%

66.3%

0.2%

61.7%

<0.1%

60.3%

0.3%

55.8%

0.1%

53.9%

0.1%

50.9%

0.7%

50.3%

0.2%

48.7%

0.2%

47.8%

1.0%

46.9%

0.4%

46.9%

0.5%

46.8%

0.4%

46.6%

1.6%

43.4%

1.6%

41.0%

0.3%

40.9%

1.1%

40.6%

1.3%

39.5%

2.6%

34.5%

10.3%

33.8%

2.7%

32.1%

4.1%

Any 3 losses

11.2%

25.0%

65.1%

<0.1%

64.7%

<0.1%

62.2%

<0.1%

59.3%

<0.1%

52.7%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

49.3%

0.1%

48.9%

0.3%

48.1%

<0.1%

46.5%

<0.1%

44.2%

<0.1%

43.0%

0.2%

42.0%

0.6%

41.5%

0.1%

41.2%

0.3%

37.5%

<0.1%

37.3%

0.4%

34.5%

2.4%

33.9%

0.2%

33.8%

0.9%

30.1%

0.6%

11.1%

<0.1%

5.7%

<0.1%

3.5%

<0.1%

3.4%

0.4%

2.9%

0.1%

2.7%

0.3%

2.1%

1.5%

2.1%

0.1%

1.9%

0.6%

1.9%

0.2%

1.8%

<0.1%

1.7%

0.4%

1.6%

0.2%

1.4%

0.9%

1.2%

2.4%

1.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.3%

1.0%

3.9%

0.9%

0.3%

0.8%

1.0%

0.8%

2.5%

0.8%

0.7%

0.8%

0.1%

0.8%

0.4%

0.7%

0.1%

0.6%

0.3%

Any 4 losses

1.7%

2.3%

9.1%

<0.1%

6.7%

<0.1%

5.3%

<0.1%

5.0%

<0.1%

5.0%

<0.1%

2.5%

0.1%

2.5%

<0.1%

2.3%

0.4%

2.2%

0.2%

1.7%

0.2%

1.4%

0.1%

1.4%

<0.1%

1.3%

0.2%

1.2%

<0.1%

1.1%

<0.1%

1.0%

0.1%

0.5%

0.6%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com