Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
21.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W42-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L45-48 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W28-10 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L24-35 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:77% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:95% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:49% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:81% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:35% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:72% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:49% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:75% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 2.6% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 14.0% | 89.3% |
| 6-2 | 28.7% | 23.6% |
| 5-3 | 30.3% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 17.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 5.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 21.4% (-0.5%) | 23.8% (+1.9%) | |
| 7.3% (-14.6%) | 26.3% (+4.3%) | |
| 22.7% (+0.8%) | 21.6% (-0.4%) | |
| 21.5% (-0.4%) | 22.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 20.6% (-1.4%) | 23.2% (+1.3%) | |
| 22.0% (+0.1%) | 21.8% (-0.2%) | |
| 22.6% (+0.6%) | 21.6% (-0.4%) | |
| 21.5% (-0.5%) | 22.0% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
MiamiSMU
Wake Forest
Louisville
California
North Carolina
Boston College
CampbellCCG: 45.6% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
SMUCCG: 26.3% • Scenario: 77.1%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
2.6%Any 1 loss
89.2%
14.0%
96.5%
0.1%96.0%
0.9%92.0%
0.6%91.9%
1.0%
90.0%
2.8%88.1%
4.9%
87.6%
0.8%86.9%
2.8%Any 2 losses
23.6%
28.7%62.5%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%51.2%
<0.1%46.6%
0.2%44.0%
0.2%41.1%
0.4%39.1%
1.1%38.8%
0.7%37.1%
0.2%36.4%
0.1%34.1%
<0.1%32.8%
0.3%31.1%
0.3%30.9%
0.9%30.7%
0.1%29.0%
1.1%28.7%
2.0%28.2%
0.8%27.2%
0.6%26.0%
0.3%25.8%
1.1%22.5%
1.6%22.4%
1.4%21.1%
0.9%20.6%
5.3%19.2%
2.9%18.0%
0.8%13.7%
5.1%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28