VirginiaCavaliers

4-1 6th (2-1) in ACC

Data from 2025-09-28 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

13.0%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsCoastal CarolinaCCU	W48-7
2	9/06	@NC StateNCSU	L31-35
3	9/13	vsWilliam & MaryW&M	W55-16
4	9/20	vsStanfordSTAN	W48-20
5	9/26	vsFlorida StateFSU	W46-38
6	10/04	@LouisvilleLOU	Win prob:20%
8	10/18	vsWashington StateWSU	Win prob:86%
9	10/25	@North CarolinaUNC	Win prob:67%
10	11/01	@CaliforniaCAL	Win prob:59%
11	11/08	vsWake ForestWAKE	Win prob:80%
12	11/15	@DukeDUKE	Win prob:53%
14	11/29	vsVirginia TechVT	Win prob:73%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-1	2.4%	99.0%
7-2	16.0%	60.6%
6-3	32.9%	2.6%
5-4	30.9%	0%
4-5	14.2%	0%
3-6	3.3%	0%
2-7	0.3%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

57.0%

18.4%

11.3%

10.5%

2.8%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
MiamiMIA@Florida StateFSU	12.4% (-0.6%)	15.1% (+2.1%)
SyracuseSYR@SMUSMU	14.5% (+1.6%)	12.5% (-0.5%)
Wake ForestWAKE@Virginia TechVT	13.1% (+0.1%)	12.9% (-0.1%)
VirginiaUVA@LouisvilleLOU	35.8% (+22.8%)	7.4% (-5.6%)
DukeDUKE@CaliforniaCAL	12.7% (-0.2%)	13.2% (+0.2%)
ClemsonCLEM@North CarolinaUNC	13.1% (+0.1%)	12.7% (-0.3%)
Boston CollegeBC@PittsburghPITT	13.1% (+0.1%)	12.9% (-0.1%)
CampbellCAM@NC StateNCSU	13.0% (+0.1%)	13.0% (-0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Florida State

Syracuse

Wake Forest

Virginia

Duke

North Carolina

Boston College

CCG: 73.3% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Virginia

CCG: 35.8% • Scenario: 19.7%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

99.1%

2.1%

Any 1 loss

61.3%

14.1%

98.3%

0.4%

73.3%

0.5%

70.4%

1.0%

69.8%

0.7%

69.5%

1.4%

62.4%

1.8%

55.4%

8.2%

Any 2 losses

7.0%

30.5%

74.5%

0.2%

72.7%

0.1%

67.6%

0.2%

67.4%

<0.1%

63.0%

0.3%

58.0%

1.3%

6.6%

0.2%

6.4%

0.3%

5.3%

0.5%

5.3%

0.3%

4.8%

0.7%

4.8%

0.4%

4.6%

0.4%

3.6%

0.7%

3.3%

2.1%

3.1%

1.3%

3.1%

0.9%

2.6%

3.1%

2.4%

4.0%

2.0%

5.9%

1.8%

7.4%

Any 3 losses

2.8%

4.6%

11.5%

<0.1%

7.6%

<0.1%

7.5%

<0.1%

6.0%

0.1%

4.0%

0.4%

3.7%

0.2%

3.5%

<0.1%

3.1%

0.7%

2.9%

0.1%

2.9%

0.5%

2.8%

0.1%

1.7%

1.2%

1.7%

1.0%

1.5%

0.1%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com