Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
3.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W34-15 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W35-3 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W27-14 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L0-34 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W28-24 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:52% | |
| 8 | 10/17 | Win prob:66% | |
| 9 | 10/24 | Win prob:42% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:41% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:11% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:69% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:25% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 1.8% | 87.8% |
| 6-2 | 9.6% | 21.5% |
| 5-3 | 24.1% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 32.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 22.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 8.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5% (-0.3%) | 4.7% (+0.9%) | |
| 4.0% (+0.2%) | 3.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 3.7% (-0.1%) | 3.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.0% (+0.2%) | 3.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.9% (-2.9%) | 6.5% (+2.7%) | |
| 3.7% (-0.1%) | 4.2% (+0.4%) | |
| 3.9% (+0.1%) | 3.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 3.9% (+0.1%) | 3.8% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Florida State
Syracuse
Wake Forest
VirginiaCalifornia
North Carolina
Pittsburgh
CampbellCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
CaliforniaCCG: 6.5% • Scenario: 51.7%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.1%Any 1 loss
87.8%
1.8%100.0%
<0.1%
96.9%
<0.1%94.9%
0.2%
90.1%
0.2%
86.5%
0.3%
86.5%
0.1%
85.2%
0.9%Any 2 losses
21.5%
9.6%46.9%
<0.1%45.6%
<0.1%45.1%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.8%
<0.1%37.0%
0.2%36.2%
0.1%34.8%
<0.1%34.7%
<0.1%34.2%
0.2%31.6%
0.2%29.9%
0.5%28.4%
0.5%26.2%
0.1%25.9%
0.5%22.4%
1.3%22.2%
0.4%18.2%
1.3%17.7%
0.3%17.2%
0.8%14.2%
2.8%Any 3 losses
0.8%
1.0%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.4%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28