Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W17-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W23-7 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W20-10 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W56-10 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L19-24 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:72% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:43% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:58% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:19% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:67% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:42% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 1.0% | 87.6% |
| 6-2 | 8.2% | 12.9% |
| 5-3 | 24.1% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 33.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 23.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 8.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 2.3% (+0.4%) | 1.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.8% (-0.1%) | 2.5% (+0.6%) | |
| 1.9% (+0.0%) | 1.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 3.0% (+1.1%) | 1.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.4% (+0.5%) | 1.8% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Florida
Mississippi State
Kent State
AlabamaCCG: 5.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
FloridaCCG: 2.5% • Scenario: 16.1%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
87.7%
0.9%Any 1 loss
13.7%
7.5%
86.5%
0.1%
23.2%
0.4%
20.5%
0.4%
19.3%
0.6%
16.1%
1.1%
14.1%
1.1%8.3%
3.7%Any 2 losses
13.9%
0.8%27.3%
<0.1%24.4%
<0.1%18.0%
0.1%14.7%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%10.3%
0.4%Any 3 losses
1.1%
0.2%2.4%
<0.1%0.7%
0.1%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28