Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W23-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W66-0 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L14-27 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W31-28 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:6% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:87% | |
| 8 | 10/17 | Win prob:42% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:25% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:79% | |
| 12 | 11/14 | Win prob:7% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:74% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:65% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.5% | 47.6% |
| 7-2 | 5.5% | 0.7% |
| 6-3 | 21.6% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 35.0% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 26.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 9.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.6% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.9% (+2.6%) | 0.1% (-0.2%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.1%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UL MonroeMinnesota
Illinois
Wisconsin
Michigan StateCCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MinnesotaCCG: 2.9% • Scenario: 6.2%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
48.1%
0.5%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
71.8%
<0.1%
64.7%
<0.1%
50.0%
<0.1%
45.5%
0.2%
41.7%
0.2%20.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
1.8%
1.9%20.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.3%
0.1%2.2%
0.3%2.0%
<0.1%1.3%
0.6%1.3%
0.6%1.0%
0.1%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28