Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
34.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W69-0 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W27-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W34-13 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W24-21 | |
| 6 | 10/03 | W38-24 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W33-27 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:61% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:52% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:31% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:51% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:65% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:74% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 2.4% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 13.7% | 97.7% |
| 7-2 | 29.3% | 58.6% |
| 6-3 | 31.2% | 3.8% |
| 5-4 | 17.8% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 5.0% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 36.4% (+2.3%) | 31.7% (-2.4%) | |
| 14.4% (-19.7%) | 46.8% (+12.7%) | |
| 33.9% (-0.2%) | 34.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 34.3% (+0.1%) | 34.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 34.0% (-0.1%) | 34.9% (+0.8%) | |
| 34.6% (+0.5%) | 33.7% (-0.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 56.0% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 46.8% • Scenario: 60.9%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
2.4%Any 1 loss
97.7%
13.6%99.9%
2.3%99.7%
0.9%99.7%
2.3%99.6%
1.4%98.9%
1.6%94.7%
5.3%Any 2 losses
58.6%
29.3%92.1%
0.8%79.3%
1.2%75.3%
1.8%75.3%
0.8%74.7%
2.2%74.6%
0.5%70.4%
0.5%66.7%
1.4%64.9%
1.4%61.5%
4.9%52.6%
3.0%51.6%
1.5%49.9%
0.9%45.8%
5.2%35.4%
3.3%Any 3 losses
3.8%
31.3%10.0%
1.7%8.1%
0.8%7.7%
1.0%7.4%
0.5%6.8%
0.4%6.1%
1.8%5.4%
0.4%4.7%
0.5%4.0%
2.7%3.7%
1.1%3.5%
1.2%3.5%
0.8%3.1%
0.3%3.0%
3.2%2.9%
2.8%2.6%
4.7%2.2%
1.4%1.8%
3.4%1.5%
0.8%1.5%
1.9%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12