Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
6.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L24-38 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W48-45 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W42-7 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L24-27 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W45-27 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W35-34 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:23% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:50% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:61% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:45% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:60% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:75% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 1.4% | 92.9% |
| 7-2 | 10.1% | 46.1% |
| 6-3 | 26.3% | 1.2% |
| 5-4 | 33.2% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 21.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 6.9% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 6.2% (-0.0%) | 6.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 7.3% (+1.1%) | 5.6% (-0.7%) | |
| 17.2% (+10.9%) | 3.1% (-3.2%) | |
| 6.3% (+0.0%) | 6.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.3% (-0.0%) | 6.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 6.3% (+0.0%) | 6.3% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Arizona State
UtahBaylor
West Virginia
Oklahoma State
ArizonaCCG: 24.1% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BaylorCCG: 17.2% • Scenario: 22.6%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
92.9%
1.4%Any 1 loss
46.1%
10.1%62.8%
0.9%
61.4%
0.5%
53.5%
0.9%
48.0%
1.4%
46.4%
4.8%26.7%
1.7%Any 2 losses
1.6%
18.9%5.7%
0.3%5.5%
0.3%4.2%
0.6%3.0%
0.5%1.9%
3.2%1.9%
0.9%1.7%
3.2%1.7%
1.6%1.3%
1.0%1.2%
0.9%1.2%
1.1%0.9%
0.6%0.7%
4.8%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12