CincinnatiBearcats

5-1 T1st (3-0) in B12

Data from 2025-10-12 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

15.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/28	vsNebraskaNEB(N)	L17-20
2	9/06	vsBowling GreenBGSU	W34-20
3	9/13	vsNorthwestern StateNWST	W70-0
5	9/27	@KansasKU	W37-34
6	10/04	vsIowa StateISU	W38-30
7	10/11	vsUCFUCF	W20-11
8	10/18	@Oklahoma StateOKST	Win prob:89%
9	10/25	vsBaylorBAY	Win prob:50%
10	11/01	@UtahUTAH	Win prob:25%
12	11/15	vsArizonaARIZ	Win prob:68%
13	11/22	vsBYUBYU	Win prob:35%
14	11/29	@TCUTCU	Win prob:18%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	0.4%	100.0%
8-1	5.2%	96.9%
7-2	20.6%	44.2%
6-3	36.0%	1.5%
5-4	28.3%	0%
4-5	8.7%	0%
3-6	0.7%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

65.7%

14.8%

12.1%

3.9%

3.5%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Texas TechTTU@Arizona StateASU	15.6% (+0.5%)	14.6% (-0.5%)
UtahUTAH@BYUBYU	15.4% (+0.3%)	14.9% (-0.2%)
BaylorBAY@TCUTCU	15.8% (+0.7%)	14.9% (-0.2%)
West VirginiaWVU@UCFUCF	14.2% (-0.9%)	15.3% (+0.2%)
CincinnatiCIN@Oklahoma StateOKST	16.4% (+1.3%)	4.9% (-10.3%)
ArizonaARIZ@HoustonHOU	15.5% (+0.4%)	14.8% (-0.3%)

Best Winner Combination for

Arizona State

Utah

Baylor

West Virginia

Cincinnati

Arizona

CCG: 20.5% • Scenario: 0.3%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Cincinnati

CCG: 16.4% • Scenario: 88.7%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.4%

Any 1 loss

96.9%

5.2%

100.0%

0.2%

100.0%

<0.1%

99.0%

0.5%

98.3%

2.1%

94.9%

1.5%

94.5%

0.8%

Any 2 losses

44.2%

20.6%

69.6%

<0.1%

68.3%

<0.1%

65.0%

0.2%

63.8%

0.3%

62.3%

1.0%

59.1%

2.1%

55.1%

0.4%

53.4%

0.2%

52.3%

0.7%

51.4%

0.1%

51.4%

0.9%

42.5%

1.4%

41.4%

6.5%

39.8%

4.1%

28.7%

2.7%

Any 3 losses

1.5%

35.9%

18.8%

<0.1%

7.7%

0.1%

6.5%

0.3%

5.4%

<0.1%

5.0%

0.4%

4.1%

1.1%

3.7%

0.1%

2.8%

0.2%

2.6%

0.8%

2.5%

1.9%

2.2%

0.3%

2.1%

0.7%

2.1%

3.0%

2.0%

0.5%

1.6%

3.9%

1.4%

1.3%

6.6%

1.0%

2.6%

0.6%

12.1%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com