Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W27-0 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W35-9 | |
| 3 | 9/12 | W36-20 | |
| 5 | 9/26 | W27-24 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L11-35 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W39-17 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:56% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:14% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:73% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:27% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:20% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:25% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.1% | 91.4% |
| 7-2 | 1.3% | 30.4% |
| 6-3 | 8.5% | 0.5% |
| 5-4 | 25.4% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 37.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 22.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 4.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5% (+0.0%) | 0.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (+0.1%) | 0.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.0%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.0%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.4%) | 0.9% (+0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Texas Tech
Utah
Baylor
West Virginia
Oklahoma StateHoustonCCG: 2.4% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
HoustonCCG: 0.9% • Scenario: 56.1%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
91.4%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
30.4%
1.3%
43.8%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%
38.0%
0.2%31.0%
0.2%
27.6%
0.3%
26.2%
0.5%Any 2 losses
0.9%
4.0%1.8%
0.1%1.7%
0.2%1.3%
<0.1%1.1%
0.6%1.0%
0.1%0.8%
0.4%0.7%
1.3%0.7%
0.8%0.6%
0.2%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12