Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
12.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/01 | W48-14 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W42-21 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W35-24 | |
| 5 | 9/26 | L24-27 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W35-21 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L28-41 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:77% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:88% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:73% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:49% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:80% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:82% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 16.1% | 64.0% |
| 6-3 | 37.0% | 5.2% |
| 5-4 | 31.0% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 12.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 2.8% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 12.4% (+0.1%) | 12.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 10.3% (-1.9%) | 13.5% (+1.2%) | |
| 1.2% (-11.1%) | 15.5% (+3.2%) | |
| 12.7% (+0.4%) | 12.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 12.2% (-0.1%) | 13.0% (+0.7%) | |
| 11.7% (-0.6%) | 12.7% (+0.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Texas Tech
BYUTCU
West Virginia
Oklahoma State
HoustonCCG: 19.8% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TCUCCG: 15.5% • Scenario: 77.4%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
64.0%
16.1%Any 1 loss
5.2%
37.0%9.5%
4.1%9.0%
2.1%
5.6%
4.8%
5.2%
5.9%
4.2%
3.5%3.9%
16.7%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12