SEC

SEC Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-10-12

SECConference Standings

T1AlabamaALA3-05-179.7%
T1MississippiMISS3-06-042.5%
T1Texas A&MTA&M3-06-09.7%
4GeorgiaUGA3-15-143.6%
T5TennesseeTENN2-15-14.7%
T5LSULSU2-15-12.4%
T7TexasTEX1-14-211.6%
T7MissouriMIZ1-15-12.6%
T7OklahomaOU1-15-11.7%
T7VanderbiltVAN1-15-11.4%
11FloridaFLA1-22-4<0.1%
12South CarolinaSC1-33-3-
T13ArkansasARK0-22-4<0.1%
T13AuburnAUB0-33-3-
T13KentuckyUK0-32-3-
T13Mississippi StMSST0-24-2-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely SEC CCG Matchups

133.2%
AlabamaALA
vs
UGAGeorgia
228.6%
AlabamaALA
vs
MISSMississippi
38.0%
AlabamaALA
vs
TEXTexas
45.5%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
MISSMississippi
54.9%
AlabamaALA
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
62.5%
MississippiMISS
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
72.4%
MississippiMISS
vs
TEXTexas
81.7%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
91.5%
MississippiMISS
vs
TENNTennessee
101.4%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
TENNTennessee
111.4%
AlabamaALA
vs
MIZMissouri
121.2%
AlabamaALA
vs
TENNTennessee
130.9%
LSULSU
vs
MISSMississippi
140.9%
AlabamaALA
vs
LSULSU
150.8%
AlabamaALA
vs
VANVanderbilt

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

SECCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on SEC CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 79.7%
Game
AlabamaCCG OddsAway
AlabamaCCG OddsHome
MissouriMIZ@AuburnAUB
79.7%
(-0.0%)		79.7%
(+0.0%)
Texas A&MTA&M@ArkansasARK
78.7%
(-1.0%)		81.6%
(+1.9%)
LSULSU@VanderbiltVAN
79.5%
(-0.2%)		79.8%
(+0.1%)
TennesseeTENN@AlabamaALA
55.7%
(-23.9%)		87.2%
(+7.5%)
MississippiMISS@GeorgiaUGA
78.9%
(-0.8%)		80.1%
(+0.4%)
OklahomaOU@South CarolinaSC
79.4%
(-0.3%)		80.0%
(+0.3%)
TexasTEX@KentuckyUK
79.6%
(-0.1%)		80.6%
(+0.9%)
Mississippi StMSST@FloridaFLA
79.8%
(+0.2%)		79.6%
(-0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for Alabama

AuburnAuburnArkansasArkansasVanderbiltVanderbiltAlabamaAlabamaMississippiOle MissOklahomaOklahomaKentuckyKentuckyMississippi StMississippi State

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Alabama

AlabamaAlabama

CCG: 87.2% • Scenario: 76.2%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

SECCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team8-07-16-25-3Overall
AlabamaALA100%94.7%37.6%0.3%79.7%
GeorgiaUGA-97.7%13.2%<0.1%43.6%
MississippiMISS99.5%51.0%3.9%-42.5%
TexasTEX-79.0%2.3%-11.6%
Texas A&MTA&M98.7%47.5%2.7%-9.7%
TennesseeTENN-67.1%3.1%-4.7%
MissouriMIZ-53.3%2.2%<0.1%2.6%
LSULSU-89.7%13.2%<0.1%2.4%
OklahomaOU-96.6%33.6%<0.1%1.7%
VanderbiltVAN-66.8%8.1%-1.4%
FloridaFLA--41.1%<0.1%<0.1%
ArkansasARK--11.8%-<0.1%
AuburnAUB-----
KentuckyUK-----
Mississippi StMSST-----
South CarolinaSC-----

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

SECFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team8-07-16-25-34-43-52-61-70-8Avg Wins
AlabamaALA(3-0)33.0%41.2%20.3%4.9%0.6%<0.1%---7.0
MississippiMISS(3-0)17.7%46.7%28.7%6.4%0.5%<0.1%---6.7
GeorgiaUGA(3-1)-38.7%43.9%15.6%1.7%<0.1%---6.2
TexasTEX(1-1)-13.5%43.3%31.8%9.8%1.6%<0.1%<0.1%-5.6
Texas A&MTA&M(3-0)2.1%14.3%33.2%33.4%14.7%2.4%---5.5
TennesseeTENN(2-1)-5.7%28.3%38.0%21.9%5.6%0.5%--5.1
MissouriMIZ(1-1)-4.1%18.1%32.6%28.7%13.3%3.0%0.2%-4.6
LSULSU(2-1)-1.1%10.6%29.8%36.4%18.9%3.1%--4.3
VanderbiltVAN(1-1)-1.1%8.7%26.2%34.9%22.2%6.3%0.7%-4.1
OklahomaOU(1-1)-0.4%3.8%15.4%30.7%31.2%15.6%3.0%-3.5
FloridaFLA(1-2)--0.2%3.9%23.3%43.5%25.0%4.1%-3.0
AuburnAUB(0-3)---1.1%9.8%29.0%37.1%19.9%3.2%2.3
ArkansasARK(0-2)--0.1%1.6%9.8%27.1%35.7%21.5%4.2%2.2
South CarolinaSC(1-3)---0.3%4.8%23.4%44.1%27.4%-2.1
KentuckyUK(0-3)---<0.1%0.6%5.3%21.8%42.2%30.1%1.0
Mississippi StMSST(0-2)--0.0%<0.1%0.3%3.3%16.3%40.8%39.3%0.8

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com