Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W45-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W44-20 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W31-7 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W70-21 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W55-35 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L14-30 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:57% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:52% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:19% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:67% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:84% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:31% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 1.1% | 66.8% |
| 6-2 | 8.7% | 8.1% |
| 5-3 | 26.2% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 34.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 22.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 6.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1.5% (+0.1%) | 1.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.4% (-0.0%) | 1.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-1.2%) | 2.3% (+0.9%) | |
| 1.7% (+0.3%) | 1.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.1% (-0.3%) | 1.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.3% (-0.1%) | 1.6% (+0.2%) | |
| 1.4% (-0.0%) | 1.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.4% (-0.0%) | 1.4% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 33.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 2.3% • Scenario: 56.7%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
66.8%
1.1%Any 1 loss
8.1%
8.7%11.7%
0.9%10.8%
0.5%10.3%
2.2%9.3%
0.8%7.0%
0.2%5.6%
4.1%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12