Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
79.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L17-31 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W73-0 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W38-14 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W24-21 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W30-14 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W27-24 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:76% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:80% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:83% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:82% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:80% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 33.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 41.2% | 94.7% |
| 6-2 | 20.3% | 37.6% |
| 5-3 | 4.9% | 0.3% |
| 4-4 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 79.7% (-0.0%) | 79.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 78.7% (-1.0%) | 81.6% (+1.9%) | |
| 79.5% (-0.2%) | 79.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 55.7% (-23.9%) | 87.2% (+7.5%) | |
| 78.9% (-0.8%) | 80.1% (+0.4%) | |
| 79.4% (-0.3%) | 80.0% (+0.3%) | |
| 79.6% (-0.1%) | 80.6% (+0.9%) | |
| 79.8% (+0.2%) | 79.6% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Auburn
Arkansas
VanderbiltAlabama
Ole Miss
Oklahoma
Kentucky
Mississippi StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
AlabamaCCG: 87.2% • Scenario: 76.2%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
29.7%Any 1 loss
95.2%
40.4%
100.0%
3.3%
95.9%
9.3%95.3%
7.4%95.0%
6.8%
94.0%
7.6%
92.9%
6.0%Any 2 losses
48.3%
22.4%96.3%
0.8%96.2%
0.7%95.7%
1.1%94.4%
0.8%91.7%
0.7%45.9%
1.9%43.4%
1.6%41.2%
1.5%38.9%
1.5%38.7%
1.6%37.2%
2.4%36.9%
2.3%32.5%
1.4%32.4%
1.9%31.4%
2.1%Any 3 losses
32.0%
2.3%47.6%
0.2%43.5%
0.2%40.0%
0.1%39.6%
0.2%38.2%
0.2%36.2%
0.3%34.3%
0.3%32.5%
0.2%30.1%
0.3%27.8%
0.1%1.0%
0.3%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12