TexasLonghorns

4-2 T7th (1-1) in SEC

Data from 2025-10-12 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

11.6%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	@Ohio StateOSU	L7-14
2	9/06	vsSan José StateSJSU	W38-7
3	9/13	vsUTEPUTEP	W27-10
4	9/20	vsSam HoustonSHSU	W55-0
6	10/04	@FloridaFLA	L21-29
7	10/11	vsOklahomaOU(N)	W23-6
8	10/18	@KentuckyUK	Win prob:89%
9	10/25	@Mississippi StateMSST	Win prob:90%
10	11/01	vsVanderbiltVAN	Win prob:81%
12	11/15	@GeorgiaUGA	Win prob:29%
13	11/22	vsArkansasARK	Win prob:90%
14	11/28	vsTexas A&MTA&M	Win prob:77%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
7-1	13.5%	79.0%
6-2	43.3%	2.3%
5-3	31.8%	0%
4-4	9.8%	0%
3-5	1.6%	0%
2-6	0.1%	0%
1-7	0.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

71.6%

21.5%

2.6%

2.6%

1.8%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
MissouriMIZ@AuburnAUB	11.3% (-0.3%)	12.0% (+0.4%)
Texas A&MTA&M@ArkansasARK	11.3% (-0.4%)	12.3% (+0.7%)
LSULSU@VanderbiltVAN	11.3% (-0.3%)	11.8% (+0.2%)
TennesseeTENN@AlabamaALA	12.9% (+1.3%)	11.2% (-0.4%)
Ole MissMISS@GeorgiaUGA	8.1% (-3.5%)	13.5% (+1.9%)
OklahomaOU@South CarolinaSC	11.7% (+0.1%)	11.6% (-0.1%)
TexasTEX@KentuckyUK	12.8% (+1.2%)	1.3% (-10.3%)
Mississippi StateMSST@FloridaFLA	11.6% (-0.0%)	11.6% (+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Auburn

Arkansas

Vanderbilt

Tennessee

Ole Miss

Oklahoma

Texas

Mississippi State

CCG: 23.6% • Scenario: 0.1%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Georgia

Texas

CCG: 14.9% • Scenario: 58.6%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

79.0%

13.5%

Any 1 loss

2.3%

43.3%

8.5%

1.6%

7.9%

1.4%

7.2%

1.5%

5.1%

3.3%

3.7%

4.0%

1.0%

31.6%

0.6%

0.2%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com