Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L20-27 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W31-7 | |
| 3 | 9/12 | L20-36 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W37-20 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L21-24 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L21-35 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W24-17 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:22% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:75% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:77% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:55% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:31% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-3 | 2.2% | 3.4% |
| 5-4 | 15.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 36.9% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 32.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 11.3% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.3%) | 0.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.2%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Cincinnati
TCU
Arizona StateColorado
Kansas
Oklahoma State
BYUCCG: 6.7% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ColoradoCCG: 0.3% • Scenario: 22.2%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
3.4%
2.2%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19